Abstract: Aiming at the problem that it was difficult to predict the network attack behavior, the attack prediction was inaccurate for the redundant path in the network, and the single index of the evaluation and prediction of the attack path, we proposed an NAPG (network attack profit graph) model, which intuitively reflected the feasibility of attack behavior through attack cost and attack profit. The attack feasibility analysis algorithm was used to eliminate redundant paths, and the attack profit was introduced into the evaluation and prediction index. The opportunity profit path prediction algorithm and the optimal profit path prediction algorithm were given. The validity of the model and algorithm was verified by simulation experiments.

Key words: attack graph technique, attack profit, profit matrix, path prediction