Abstract:

Aiming at the autonomic network management problem in composite functional network system, on the basis of MHBS(Meteorological and Hydrological Business System), indepth researching of device status prediction and DENng policy model and the combination of above two mechanisms was done. The NARBP（Nonlinear Auto RegressiveBack Propagation） prediction model was proposed and some experiments of the model were done on the basis of real measure data. The result indicated that the SSE（Sum Squared Error）, MSE（Mean Square Error） and MSPE（Mean Square Percent Error） of NARBP prediction model was less than existing linear AR(Auto Regressive) model about 4/5. Finally the management decision components was expanded based on DENng policy model for the adaptability of system status prediction on application level providing an instance of policydriven data communication management with multiple channels to show the feasibility of expansion DEN-ng policy model in autonomic network management.

Key words: policy model, monitor, prognosis model, autonomic network management