Abstract:

Through the analysis of the influence of ginseng price factors,we predict the ginseng price.We applied K-fold cross-validation method,utilized the PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) to reach the optimum of penalty parameter c and value of g_gamma,and  built the forecast model of the ginseng price from January 2010 to December 2011.The optimized value by PSO for penalty parameter c is 3.6974,the prediction correlation coefficient for prediction set 1 by the SVM(Support Vector Machine)of radial basis kernel function is 97.316%,the results are satisfactory,and we can predict ginseng price from January to June 2012 with this model.

Key words: support vector machine, particle swarm optimization, ginseng prices