基于组合权重的汛期地质灾害预警预报模型

吉林大学学报(地球科学版)

基于组合权重的汛期地质灾害预警预报模型

陶占盛^1,2，王新民¹，吴志强¹，杨平¹，秦喜文³

1.长春工业大学应用数学研究所，长春100032;
2.山西兰花煤层气有限公司，山西晋城048000;
3.长春工业大学基础科学学院, 长春100032

收稿日期:2014-05-13 出版日期:2014-11-26 发布日期:2014-11-26
通讯作者: 王新民（1958-），男，教授，主要从事工程中的数值方法研究 E-mail:wxm@jlu.edu.cn
作者简介:陶占盛(1983-)，男，硕士，主要从事工程中的数值方法研究，E-mail:taotaosv@sina.com
基金资助:
吉林省科技厅项目（201105105）

Warning and Forecasting Model of Flood Geological Hazards Based on Combined Weight Method

Tao Zhansheng^1,2, Wang Xinmin¹,Wu Zhiqiang¹，Yang Ping¹,Qin Xiwen³

1.Institute of Applied Mathematics, Changchun University of Technology, Changchun100032, China;
2.Shanxi Lanhua Coalbed Methane Co., Ltd, Jincheng048000, Shanxi, China;
3.College of Basic Science, Changchun University of Technology, Changchun100032, China

Received:2014-05-13 Online:2014-11-26 Published:2014-11-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用组合权重法将地质灾害易发区等级和降雨量等级进行有机的结合，建立了基于组合权重的汛期地质灾害预警预报模型。以吉林省为例检验其有效性。将研究区域剖分为5 702（5 km×5 km）个单元格，对每个单元格的地质灾害发生的可能性进行了等级预报。通过对已发生的地质灾害及降雨量的历史资料进行验证可知，该预报结果的精准率达到了93.25%，其预报结果是合理可行的。

关键词: 组合权重, 降雨量, 地质灾害, 预警预报

Abstract:

The authors divided grades for the geological disaster-prone zone and rainfalls by weight method, and established a flood warning and forecasting model of geological disasters based on combination weights. Its effectiveness was tested for taking Jilin Province as an example. The study area was subdivided into 5 702 (5 km × 5 km) cells, and the possibility of geological disasters in each cell was forecasted in grade. By using the historical data of geological disasters and rainfalls, the forecast results are verified and the accurate rates reach 93.25%, which is reasonable and feasible.

Key words: combination weights, rainfall, geological disasters, warning and forecasting

中图分类号:

陶占盛，王新民，吴志强，杨平，秦喜文. 基于组合权重的汛期地质灾害预警预报模型[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2014, 44(6): 2010-2015.

Tao Zhansheng, Wang Xinmin,Wu Zhiqiang，Yang Ping,Qin Xiwen. Warning and Forecasting Model of Flood Geological Hazards Based on Combined Weight Method[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2014, 44(6): 2010-2015.

参考文献

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