基于MODFLOW参数不确定性的地下水水流数值模拟方法

doi:10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201706203

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 考虑到模型不确定性引起的地下水数值模拟不确定性对模拟过程的影响，在简要介绍含水层水文地质参数变异性研究进展和地质统计学的基础上，基于常用的确定性地下水流数值模拟软件MODFLOW开发了MODFLOW-Gslib软件，相较于传统的数值模拟方法，将地质统计学与数值模拟结合的方法能够模拟非均质含水层中的参数变异性问题。将MODFLOW-Gslib软件运用于模拟实例中，选择常见的不确定性因素进行模拟，并对其模拟产生的数据进行统计分析，结果表明，软件转化后的参数符合水文地质参数不确定性的相关特征；与原模拟结果进行对比，该软件能够更加真实地刻画含水层参数变异性特征。

关键词: 不确定性, MODFLOW, 地质统计学, 水文地质参数

Abstract: Under natural geological environment, a homogeneous geological unit is hardly existed. During the process of building a numerical model of groundwater system, it is difficult to accurately determine the hydrogeological parameters of each geological unit, which can truly depict an aquifer. The uncertain factors in groundwater modeling caused by the model uncertainties can affect the numerical model simulation process. Combing with the research of the hydrogeological parameter uncertainty and the development of geostatistics, the MODFLOW-Gslib software was developed based on the MODFLOW, which is the commonly used deterministic groundwater flow numerical software. Compared with the traditional numerical simulation method, this method of combining geostatistics with numerical simulation can simulate the parameter variability in heterogeneous aquifers. An example is given to quantitatively demonstrate the practicability of the software through choosing the hydraulic conductivity as the uncertain hydrogeological parameter to make a statistical analysis on the simulation results. It suggested that the parameters in the software are in accordance with the relevant characteristics of the uncertainty of the hydrogeological parameters. Compared with the MODFLOW simulation results, the software can describe the characteristics of hydrogeological parameter variability in an aquifer more accurately.

Key words: uncertainty, MODFLOW, geostatistics, hydrogeological parameters

中图分类号:

P641.69

束龙仓, 许杨, 吴佩鹏. 基于MODFLOW参数不确定性的地下水水流数值模拟方法[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(6): 1803-1809.

Shu Longcang, Xu Yang, Wu Peipeng. Groundwater Flow Numeric Simulation Method Based on Uncertainties of MODFLOW Parameters[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2017, 47(6): 1803-1809.

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