Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition) ›› 2021, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (1): 200-205.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20191045

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Travel choice model between bus transit and subway considering crowding degree

Wen-hui ZHANG(),Jia-qi QIN,Hong-tao LI,Hong-xing DENG,Guo-zhu CHENG()   

  1. School of Traffic and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China
  • Received:2019-09-26 Online:2021-01-01 Published:2021-01-20
  • Contact: Guo-zhu CHENG E-mail:rayear@163.com;guozhucheng@126.com

Abstract:

In order to obtain the influence of crowding degree on the choice between two modes, the ground public transit and subway, this paper proposes a method to calculate the maximum crowding degree in the operating time. Passenger flow survey is conducted for 71 bus lines, metro line 1 and 3 by manual sampling survey in Harbin City. The maximum passenger number is observed and the crowding degree is calculated. Combining RP investigation with SP investigation, the corresponding relationship between the measured data of congestion degree and the congestion degree of passenger's subjective perception is established. The travel time, crowding degree and travel cost are graded in detail, and the situation of public transport travel choice is designed. The discrete Logit model is established. The results show that the crowding degree has the greatest influence on the public transit choice, the travel cost is the second, and the stroke time has the least impact.

Key words: public transportation, crowding degree, situation combination design, discrete selection model

CLC Number: 

  • U491

Table 1

Results of bus crowding degree"

序号公交路线i最大断面乘客数nBi/人拥挤度RB
11路470.59
22路560.70
34路370.46
????
69219路310.38
70220路310.39
71223路220.28

Table 2

Results of subway crowding degree"

站 点乘客数/人最大断面乘客数nSi/人拥挤度RS
车厢1车厢2车厢3车厢4车厢5车厢6
黑龙江大学站17819821420119021511960.83
和兴路站25124022221821521213580.94
烟厂站23422721921521622913400.93
哈西大街站23224621922521620313410.93

Fig.1

Choice probability of passengers with different crowding degree"

Table 3

Travel situation design"

出行方式行程时间/min拥挤度出行费用/元
常规公交200.51
300.91
400.31
500.71
601.11
地铁80.92
150.92
220.93
290.93
360.94

Fig.2

Influencing factors of public transit travel choice"

Fig.3

Results of travel situation choice"

Table 4

Final forecast classification"

观测值预测值
选择答案正确百分比/%
01
选择答案0181964173.9
1679346183.6
总体百分比80

Table 5

Variables in final equation"

变量回归系数B标准差S.E.观测值检验Wald自由度df显著性p优势比Exp(B)
时间消耗0.0110.0072.44210.0181.011
拥挤度1.2260.13680.88710.0003.407
票价-0.3110.1177.04210.0080.733
常量0.1050.1310.64610.4221.111
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