吉林大学学报(信息科学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 475-480.

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双碳背景下计及用户侧的中长期电力负荷需求预测算法

潘 东a , 马燕如b , 王 宝b , 贾健雄b , 吕龙彪b   

  1. 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 a. 院长办公室; b. 战略研究中心, 合肥 230002
  • 收稿日期:2024-08-01 出版日期:2026-04-14 发布日期:2026-04-15
  • 通讯作者: 马燕如(1990— ), 女, 合肥人, 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院工程师, 主要从事能源经济研究, (Tel)86-15856967460(E-mail)yanru1107@126.com。 E-mail:pand7460@126.com
  • 作者简介:潘东(1968— ) , 男, 安徽桐城人, 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院高级工程师, 主要从事电网规划及电力市场研究, (Tel)86-15256967460(E-mail)pand7460@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国网安徽经研院科技创新专项支持计划基金资助项目(GWAHJYY-B6120923001C)

Medium and Long Term Forecasting Algorithm of Power Load Demand Considering User Side under the Dual Carbon Background

PAN Dong a , MA Yanru b , WANG Bao b , JIA Jianxiong b , LÜ Longbiao b   

  1. a. Dean's Office; b. Centre for Strategic Studies, Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Anhui Electric Power Company Limited, Hefei 230002, China
  • Received:2024-08-01 Online:2026-04-14 Published:2026-04-15

摘要:

针对电力负荷因受用户侧及天气等多种因素的影响, 现阶段中长期电力负荷需求预测存在精度不高的问题, 提出双碳背景下计及用户侧的中长期电力负荷需求预测算法。 通过模糊聚类方法对用户侧电力负荷数据进行聚类处理, 获取簇电力负荷曲线; 通过朗格朗日插值法填补影响因素数据的空缺值, 并通过灰色关联分析法完成主要影响因素数据的选择; 将簇电力负荷曲线和主要影响因素数据输入至注意力机制-长短期记忆网络模型中实现负荷需求预测。 实验结果表明, 所提方法的负荷需求预测精度更高, 实际应用效果较好。

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Abstract:

Power load demand forecasting is an important part of power operation. Due to the influence of various factors such as user side and weather on power load, there is a problem of low accuracy in current medium and long-term power load demand forecasting. Therefore, a medium and long-term forecasting algorithm considering user side under the dual carbon background is proposed. Fuzzy clustering method is used to obtain cluster power load curves for processing of user side data. The missing values of the influencing factor data are filled in through Langrange interpolation method, and the main influencing factor data is selected through grey correlation analysis method. The cluster power load curve and main influencing factor data
inputted into the attention mechanism long short-term memory network model to achieve load demand prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed method has higher accuracy in load demand prediction and better practical application effect.

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中图分类号: 

  • TP39