Abstract:

In order to discuss the changeable weight combination forecasting model and its application in landslide forecasting, the study based on the date of actual monitoring of Xintan landslide in A3 part in Zigui country,Hubei province, and using the changeable weight combination forecasting method which based on grey model,Verhulst model and cooperative model to simulate and forecast the part of monitoring point displacement of Xintan landslide. The results indicated that the changeable weight combination forecasting method was more precise than one single forecasting method, maximum difference of error sum squares is 10408 and minimum difference is 0184. So this method can be applied into the engineering practice.

Key words: combination forecasting, changeable weight coefficients, landslide forecasting