关键词: CA, Markov, 土地利用, 景观格局, 吉林省西部

Abstract:

Markov and CA model are the dispersed dynamics model with time and state, i e. CA model has the ability of simulated complex systematic space change, and markov model has the advantage of longterm forecast. CA-Markov couple model may not only carry out long-term forecast, but also imitate efficiently the space change. With Jilin west as example, RS and GIS technology had been explored to interpret TM data, and reached landuse landscape pattern distribution picture in the year of 1989 and 2004, then on the foundation, CA-Markov model was applied to carry out the ecological landscape pattern change tendency forecast. The results showed that the changing tendency from 2004 to 2019 was same with the changing tendency from 1989 to 2004. The area of paddy field, dry land, resident land and salinealkali soil increased respectively, and the area of the higher, lower coverage grassland, waterland and wetland decreased respectively. The increased area of saline-alkali soil expand mainly on the foundation of the saline-alkali soil, and occupy grassland, water area and wetland.The saline-alkali soil concentrate mainly in the low-lying region, the saline-alkali soil in Daan, Tongyu,changling and Qianan will join in piece , ecological environment will be broken seriously. The revised Lee-Sallee index was 0.64, showed that CA-Markov model simulated precision was higher,and it confirmed that model was applicable for prediction of the landuse landscape pattern change.

Key words: CA, Markov, land use, landscape pattern, the western Jilin Province