关键词: 泥石流, 危险度区划, 证据权法

Abstract:

For the problem of risk degree zoning of debris flow, a new mothed of weight-of-evidence to assess the weights of factors is suggested. The procedure of this method is firstly to select risk assessment factors from elements of the formation of debris flow, and to pick up the factors using weight-of-evidence method, and to define the weight of their risk degree, and then to optimize the representative factors and avoiding casualness of subjective weight and screening factors, finally, to determine probability of debris flow risk development for a unit by summing the weight of each evaluation factor. As one verification of the method in zoning of debris flow risk degree in Panshi City of Jilin Province, the result shows that there are 163 debris flow spots in low and medium risk zones which include 75.81% of the debris flow risk spots. It is accordant with the actual situation of Panshi City that the general debris flow risk degree is not high, but some areas are higher.

Key words: debris, hazard zoning, weights-of-evidence method