Abstract:

Higher order vagueness is a common attribute of debris flow disasters and their environment, and existing models and assessment methods for describing and analyzing debris flows disasters have scale effect. The scale model of Chinese debris flow hazard assessment is proposed, and fitting scale intervals of relative factors are analyzed by different scaling analysis methods. The high order fuzzy membership functions of factors are developed by interval type-II fuzzy set and are used to describe the complex of debris flow and their environment. The weight of each factor is described by interval weight. And the hazard assessment method is developed on fitting scale intervals. The results show that the method can overcome some faults of single scale methods. And the method is objective becuase it can use all possible status of factors in their fitting scale interval and consider the uncertainty of weights produced by exports for different factors.

Key words: analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy set, debris flow, fitting scale interval, higher order vagueness