Abstract: In view of the fact that the fault tree analysis method can not analyze the pipeline risk polymorphism, and can not realize two-way reasoning, a calculation method of pipeline failure probability based on Bayesian network is proposed. Firstly, the fault tree model of oil field pipeline failure risk is established, and the Bayesian network structure is determined by the transformation of fault tree and Bayesian network to complete the construction of the Bayesian network model structure of pipeline failure risk. Secondly, considering the large estimation error of network parameters determined by expert knowledge experience and expectation maximization algorithm, genetic algorithm is introduced to complete the Bayesian network structure. Finally, this method is applied to the actual risk problem of oil field pipeline, and the failure probability of oil field pipeline is calculated by using the genie Bayesian network simulation software. And each risk factor is analyzed and the cause chain affecting the pipeline failure is obtained. The experimental results show that the method proposed has significantly improved the evaluation accuracy.

Key words: fault tree analysis, bayesian network, parameter learning, genetic algorithm, pipeline