诱发区域性滑坡的降雨阈值

J4 ›› 2011, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 1481-1487.

诱发区域性滑坡的降雨阈值

赵衡|宋二祥

清华大学土木工程系|北京100084

收稿日期:2010-12-26 出版日期:2011-09-26 发布日期:2011-09-26
作者简介:赵衡(1984-)|男|湖北洪湖人|博士研究生|主要从事滑坡预测研究|E-mail:zhao-h@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划项目（2008BAJ06B01-5)

Rainfall Thresholds for Regional Landslides

ZHAO Heng, SONG Er-xiang

Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing100084, China

Received:2010-12-26 Online:2011-09-26 Published:2011-09-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据降雨预测区域性滑坡是防止滑坡造成人员伤亡的重要途径，其关键是确定诱发滑坡的降雨阈值。按特定地质气象条件分区整理并分析了国内不同地区诱发区域性滑坡的降雨阈值，结果表明降雨阈值与年均降雨量有较大的相关性。除西南部分地区外，我国大部分地区的预报24 h降雨量阈值为年均降雨量(MAP)的0.04~0.08倍，这是因为年均降雨量反映了地区的常规降雨水平，而只有发生非常规的降雨才会诱发滑坡，因而年均降雨量越大对应的降雨阈值越大。分析了目前国内的降雨阈值的确定过程中缺乏详尽数据和论证等问题，并指出了国内的降雨阈值不能反映短时强降雨影响的缺陷。针对国内还没有适用性更广的雨强-持时(I-D)阈值曲线的现状，尝试性地建立了鄂西地区的I-D阈值曲线I=4.0D^-0.51，并在此过程中提出了确定降雨持时D开始时刻的方法。

关键词: 区域性滑坡, 降雨阈值, I-D阈值曲线, 年均降雨量

Abstract:

Based on a certain regional division of China, rainfall thresholds for regional landslides in different areas were collected. The distribution of thresholds of forecasted 24 h rainfall show that they are highly correlated to climate and are approximately 0.04-0.08 times of mean annual precipitation (MAP). A review of domestic researches showed that the influence of heavy rainfall in short term couldn’t be reflected from current rainfall thresholds which were often obtained without enough argumentation. A rainfall intensity-duration threshold I=4.0D^-0.51 was obtained for the west area of Hubei Province with a method advised for defining the start point of rainfall duration.

Key words: regional landslides, rainfall threshold, intensity-duration curve, mean annual precipitation

中图分类号:

P642.22

赵衡, 宋二祥. 诱发区域性滑坡的降雨阈值[J]. J4, 2011, 41(5): 1481-1487.

ZHAO Heng, SONG Er-xiang. Rainfall Thresholds for Regional Landslides[J]. J4, 2011, 41(5): 1481-1487.

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