吉林大学学报(地球科学版) ›› 2019, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (2): 477-484.doi: 10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.20170215
林剑1, 张奇飞1, 龙万学2, 张红伟1
Lin Jian1, Zhang Qifei1, Long Wanxue2, Zhang Hongwei1
摘要: 不同的滑坡预报模型存在预报同一滑坡可能提前也有可能延迟、预报精度差异较大的问题,而且,融合多模型预警方法未能充分体现个体模型预报特征,其融合预警精度不高。在分析模型可靠性的基础上,区分预报提前和延迟2种情况,设计不同的发生滑坡隶属度函数,以最低风险原则确定滑坡预警隶属度函数,利用模糊积分实现多模型融合滑坡预警。利用16个已知滑坡对预报模型进行可靠性评价,另选4个已知滑坡分别进行滑坡发生3 d前和1 d前多模型融合预警验证实验,结果表明,多模型融合预警虚警率比多个单一模型平均虚警率分别降低16.6%和25.0%。实验表明利用预警隶属函数进行多模型滑坡预警能提高预警精度20.0%左右。
中图分类号:
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[1] | 徐则民, 梅雪峰, 王礼荣, 张有为, 曾强, 郭丽丽. 滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性——以云南头寨沟为例[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(1): 154-162. |
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