吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2021, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (1): 200-205.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb20191045

• 交通运输工程·土木工程 • 上一篇    

考虑拥挤度的常规公交与地铁出行方式选择模型

张文会(),秦佳琪,李洪涛,邓红星,程国柱()   

  1. 东北林业大学 交通学院,哈尔滨 150040
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-26 出版日期:2021-01-01 发布日期:2021-01-20
  • 通讯作者: 程国柱 E-mail:rayear@163.com;guozhucheng@126.com
  • 作者简介:张文会(1978-),男,副教授,博士.研究方向:交通运输规划与管理. E-mail: rayear@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(17YJCZH250);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572018BG01)

Travel choice model between bus transit and subway considering crowding degree

Wen-hui ZHANG(),Jia-qi QIN,Hong-tao LI,Hong-xing DENG,Guo-zhu CHENG()   

  1. School of Traffic and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China
  • Received:2019-09-26 Online:2021-01-01 Published:2021-01-20
  • Contact: Guo-zhu CHENG E-mail:rayear@163.com;guozhucheng@126.com

摘要:

为了获得常规公交和地铁拥挤度对两种出行方式选择的影响,提出一种运营时间内车内最大拥挤度计算方法。选择哈尔滨市71条常规公交线路、地铁1号线和3号线开展人工客流调查,获得高峰时段最大断面乘客数,计算得出拥挤度。将RP调查与SP调查相结合,建立拥挤度实测数据与乘客主观感知对应关系。对行程时间、拥挤度和出行费用详细分级,组合设计公共交通出行选择情境,建立常规公交和地铁出行方式选择离散Logit模型。研究结果表明,拥挤度对公共交通方式选择的影响最大,出行费用次之,行程时间影响最小。

关键词: 公共交通, 拥挤度, 情境组合设计, 离散选择模型

Abstract:

In order to obtain the influence of crowding degree on the choice between two modes, the ground public transit and subway, this paper proposes a method to calculate the maximum crowding degree in the operating time. Passenger flow survey is conducted for 71 bus lines, metro line 1 and 3 by manual sampling survey in Harbin City. The maximum passenger number is observed and the crowding degree is calculated. Combining RP investigation with SP investigation, the corresponding relationship between the measured data of congestion degree and the congestion degree of passenger's subjective perception is established. The travel time, crowding degree and travel cost are graded in detail, and the situation of public transport travel choice is designed. The discrete Logit model is established. The results show that the crowding degree has the greatest influence on the public transit choice, the travel cost is the second, and the stroke time has the least impact.

Key words: public transportation, crowding degree, situation combination design, discrete selection model

中图分类号: 

  • U491

表1

常规公交拥挤度计算结果"

序号公交路线i最大断面乘客数nBi/人拥挤度RB
11路470.59
22路560.70
34路370.46
????
69219路310.38
70220路310.39
71223路220.28

表2

地铁拥挤度计算结果"

站 点乘客数/人最大断面乘客数nSi/人拥挤度RS
车厢1车厢2车厢3车厢4车厢5车厢6
黑龙江大学站17819821420119021511960.83
和兴路站25124022221821521213580.94
烟厂站23422721921521622913400.93
哈西大街站23224621922521620313410.93

图1

不同拥挤度乘客的选择概率"

表3

出行情境设计表"

出行方式行程时间/min拥挤度出行费用/元
常规公交200.51
300.91
400.31
500.71
601.11
地铁80.92
150.92
220.93
290.93
360.94

图2

公共交通出行选择影响因素"

图3

出行情境选择结果"

表4

最终预测分类表"

观测值预测值
选择答案正确百分比/%
01
选择答案0181964173.9
1679346183.6
总体百分比80

表5

最终模型中的变量值"

变量回归系数B标准差S.E.观测值检验Wald自由度df显著性p优势比Exp(B)
时间消耗0.0110.0072.44210.0181.011
拥挤度1.2260.13680.88710.0003.407
票价-0.3110.1177.04210.0080.733
常量0.1050.1310.64610.4221.111
1 Pel A J, Bel N H, Pieters M. Including passengers' response to crowding in the Dutch national train passenger assignment model[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2014, 66(1): 111-126.
2 Basu D, Hunt J D. Valuing of attributes influencing the attractiveness of suburban train service in Mumbai city: a stated preference approach[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2012, 46(9): 1465-1476.
3 Kim K M, Hong S, Ko S, et al. Does crowding affect the path choice of metro passengers?[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice, 2015, 77: 292-304.
4 Tirachini A, Hensher D A, Rose J M. Multimodal pricing and optimal design of urban public transport: the interplay between traffic congestion and bus crowding[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2014, 61: 33-54.
5 Mahudin N D M, Cox T, Griffiths A. Measuring rail passenger crowding: scale development and psychometric properties[J]. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 2012, 15(1):38-51.
6 邵敏华, 李田野, 孙立军. 常规公交乘客对车内拥挤感知阻抗调查与建模[J]. 同济大学学报:自然科学版, 2012, 40(7): 1031-1034.
Shao Min-hua, Li Tian-ye, Sun Li-jun. Survey method and model of passengers' cost perception of crowding level in bus[J]. Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science), 2012, 40(7): 1031-1034.
7 蒋盛川, 孙轶凡, 杜豫川. 拥挤度对公共交通方式选择意愿的影响[J]. 同济大学学报:自然科学版, 2012, 40(12): 1831-1835.
Jiang Sheng-chuan, Sun Yi-fan, Du Yu-chuan. Influence of in-vehicle congestion degree on choice of public transit mode[J]. Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science), 2012, 40(12): 1831-1835.
8 高坤, 涂辉招, 李浩, 等. 出行者对不同交通方式行程时间可靠度和车内拥挤度的感知差异性[J]. 中国公路学报, 2017, 30(7): 126-133.
Gao Kun, Tu Hui-zhao, Li Hao, et al. Travelers' perception differences in travel time reliability and crowding of mode-choice in multimodal networks[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2017, 30(7): 126-133.
9 霍月英, 李晓娟, 闫振英, 等. 基于乘客满意度的公交车站立乘客面积研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19(3): 157-162.
Huo Yue-ying, Li Xiao-juan, Yan Zhen-ying, et al. Standing passenger space on a bus based on passenger satisfaction[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2019, 19(3): 157-162.
10 王方, 陈金川, 张德欣. SP调查在交通方式选择模型中的应用[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2007, 7(5): 90-95.
Wang Fang, Chen Jin-chuan, Zhang De-xin. Application of stated preference survey on traffic mode split model[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2007, 7(5): 90-95.
[1] 潘述亮, 卢小林, 邹难. 灵活型接驳公交路径优化及协同调度模型[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2016, 46(6): 1827-1835.
[2] 姜桂艳, 刘彬, 隋晓艳, 马明芳. 基于IC卡收费系统的公交客流信息实时采集方法[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2016, 46(4): 1076-1082.
[3] 周继彪, 陈红, 闫彬, 张文, 冯微. 基于云模型的地铁换乘枢纽拥挤度辨识方法[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2016, 46(1): 100-107.
[4] 孙锋, 王殿海, 胡宏宇, 马东方. 基于出行时间分析的公交跳站运行方案优化[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2012, 42(增刊1): 179-183.
[5] 王振报, 陈艳艳, 韩冬. 城市客运交通枢纽建设时序优化方法[J]. , 2012, 42(04): 899-903.
[6] 周雪梅,于晓斐,杨晓光. 基于优先级的公共交通枢纽换乘可靠度[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2009, 39(增刊2): 103-0106.
[7] 刘明君,郭继孚,高利平,张德欣,毛保华. 私人小汽车出行行为特征分析与建模[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2009, 39(增刊2): 25-0030.
[8] 杨晓光,徐竞琪,刘好德,付晶燕 . 基于乘客平均出行时间最小的公交站距优化模型
[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2008, 38(04): 802-807.
[9] 白子建,,赵淑芝,田振中. 公共交通网络优化的禁忌算法设计与实现[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2006, 36(03): 340-0344.
[10] 孙喜梅, 杨兆升. 城市公共交通站点间实时动态行程时间预测的模型[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2002, (1): 47-51.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!