关键词: P2P 借贷, 随机森林, 装袋法, 生存分析

Abstract: In order to analyze the key factors affecting the survival of P2P ( Peer to Peer) platform for the phenomenon of“life is short”of the P2P online lending platform，we collected the relevant variable data． First，we apply the bagging method and random forest to classify the P2P platform dataset and extract the important variables that affect the classification results． Secondly，the Cox proportional hazard model and the accelerated death model in the survival analysis are used to conduct empirical research，and continue to explore the P2P online loan platform“survival”or the key factors of“death”． It indicates that the most important influencing factor is whether the user funds are deposited in the bank． This result provides reference for investors and regulators，and provides a basis for accelerating the construction of the management and restraint system for P2P online loan platform funds．

Key words: peer to peer( P2P) lending, random forest, bagging method, survival analysis