Abstract: In order to ensure the structural reliability and flight safety of the aircraf，it is necessary to carry out
the dynamic reliability andysis and life prediction of the wing structure of the near space vehide． Based on the
force analysis of the wing，a new dynamic reliability analysis method of the wing for a near space vehicle is
presented with considering of random loads and strength changes． Initially，the calculation of the shear stress，
tension and compression stress，and equivalent stress of the wing section is analyzed． Then，the number of
aerodynamic loads is characterized by Poisson stochastic process． Based on the structural strength analysis of the
wing and strength interference theory，a new scheme of describing aerodynamic loads with truncated normal
distribution is proposed，a dynamic reliability model of the wing is established，and the reliability indexes are
provided． The influence of strength degradation and flight dynamics on the reliability is analyzed，to present the
basic requirements for ensuring the vehicle’s structural reliability and provide the reference for designing
structural reliability controller． The simulation results show that in order to ensure the structural reliability of the
aircraft in actual flight，we should try our best to avoid excessive increase of flight speed，negative angle of attack
and high angle of attack，and appropriately increase the flight height if conditions permit．

Key words: near space vehicle, wing, force analysis, reliability index, dynamic reliability, reliability analysis