黄河中游汛期水沙联合分布模型及其应用

J4 ›› 2011, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 1130-1135.

黄河中游汛期水沙联合分布模型及其应用

丁志宏^1,2|张金良³|冯平¹

1.天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室|天津300072;
2.黄河水利科学研究院水资源研究所|郑州450003;
3.黄河勘测规划设计有限公司|郑州450003

收稿日期:2010-10-26 出版日期:2011-07-26 发布日期:2011-07-26
作者简介:丁志宏(1979-)|男|山西襄汾人|在站博士后|主要从事水文学及水资源问题研究|E-mail:chngrenade@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（50879051）；国家“十一·五”科技支撑计划重点项目（2006BAB06B05）

Joint Distribution Model and Its Application to Flood and Sediment in Middle Reach of the Yellow River in Flood Season

DING Zhi-hong^1,2|ZHANG Jin-liang³|FENG Ping¹

1.State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin300072, China;
2.Department of Water Resources Research, Yellow River Hydraulic Research Institute, Zhengzhou450003, China;
3.Yellow River Engineering Consulting Company Limited, Zhengzhou450003, China

Received:2010-10-26 Online:2011-07-26 Published:2011-07-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为在宏观上对黄河中游水沙运动的变化规律从随机过程的角度予以揭示，以黄河中游潼关水文站1952[CD1]1998年期间流量超过6 000 m3/s的次洪过程中的洪峰流量和相应的沙峰含沙量系列为基础，运用Copula函数方法构建了黄河中游汛期水沙联合分布模型并对其应用进行了探讨。结果表明：在水沙丰枯同步频率中，同丰的频率略大于同枯的频率，同平的频率最小，分别为25.61%、24.14%和8.61%；在水沙丰枯异步频率中，水平（枯）沙枯（平）的频率为8.93%，水丰（平）沙平（丰）的频率为7.46%，水丰（枯）沙枯（丰）的频率最小，为4.43%；同一重现期可以对应不同的水沙组合事件。水沙联合分布模型的构建实现了对次洪过程中水沙变量的耦合度量与综合评价。

关键词: 黄河, 汛期, 洪水, 水沙, Copula函数

Abstract:

To deeply research and disclose change rules of flood and sediment series at the middle reach of the Yellow River from stochastic aspect macroscopically, a joint distribution model of flood and sediment was constructed with Copula function method and then its application was discussed, based on the time series of flood peak flow that over 6 000 m³/s and its corresponding peak sediment concentration during a flood course from 1952 to 1998 of the Tongguan gauge at the middle reach of the Yellow River. The results show that among the synchronous encounter probabilities of rich-poor state between flood and sediment, the synchronous rich probability is appreciably greater than the synchronous poor probability and the synchronous common probability is the smallest, their values are 25.61%, 24.14% and 8.61% respectively; among the asynchronous encounter probabilities of the rich-poor state between flood and sediment, the probability that flood is common (poor) and sediment is poor (common) is 8.93%, the probability that flood is rich (common) and sediment is common (rich) is 7.46%, and the probability that flood is rich (poor) and sediment is poor (rich) is the smallest, which is 4.43%; and the same recurrence period can correspond to different combination events between flood and sediment. The construction and application of the joint distribution model achieved coupled evaluation and integrated appraisement of flood and sediment during a flood course.

Key words: Yellow River, flood season, flood course, flood and sediment, Copula function

中图分类号:

TV122

丁志宏, 张金良, 冯平. 黄河中游汛期水沙联合分布模型及其应用[J]. J4, 2011, 41(4): 1130-1135.

DING Zhi-hong, ZHANG Jin-liang, FENG Peng. Joint Distribution Model and Its Application to Flood and Sediment in Middle Reach of the Yellow River in Flood Season[J]. J4, 2011, 41(4): 1130-1135.

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