降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流影响的定量研究

doi:10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201603203

吉林大学学报(地球科学版) ›› 2016, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 814-823.doi: 10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201603203

降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流影响的定量研究

牛军宜^1,2,3, 吴泽宁², 贾虎³

1. 湖北文理学院建筑工程学院, 湖北襄阳 441053;
2. 郑州大学水利工程博士后流动站, 郑州 450001;
3. 南阳师范学院土木建筑工程学院, 河南南阳 473061

收稿日期:2015-10-05 出版日期:2016-05-26 发布日期:2016-05-26
作者简介:牛军宜(1978),男,博士,讲师,主要从事水利工程规划与管理方面的研究,E-mail:njy1230@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（51374100）；河南省高校重点科研项目（15A110037）；河南省教育厅人文社科项目（2015-GH-390）

Quantitative Assessment for Impacts of Precipitation Variation and Runoff-Yield Change on Fenhe River Runoff

Niu Junyi^1,2,3, Wu Zening², Jia Hu³

1. Shool of Civil Engineering & Architecture, Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang 441053, Hubei, China;
2. Post-Doctorate Research Station of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
3. Academy of Civil Engineering & Architecture, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, Henan, China

Received:2015-10-05 Online:2016-05-26 Published:2016-05-26
Supported by:
Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51374100), the Key Program of Science Foundation for University and Colleges in Henan Province of China (15A110037) and Humanities and Social Science Project of the Education Department of Henan Province, China(2015-GH-390)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

定量分析汾河径流锐减的形成原因是汾河流域水资源可持续利用与管理中迫切需要解决的问题。本项研究首先采用降水-径流双累积曲线对汾河流域产流条件演变过程进行了两个时期的划分；然后采用距平百分比法对汾河流域年降水系列进行了丰枯状态划分，并建立了汾河河津站年径流量与当年降水量、上一年降水量之间的多元动态回归模型；并运用该模型定量分析了降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流的影响程度。结果表明：在1956-1973年间的产流条件下，降水变化使得河津站年均径流量平均减少约22.71%；在1974-2008年间的产流条件下，降水变化使得河津站年均径流量在平、枯两种年份平均减少了约18.95%；在1956-1973年间的年降水为平水或枯水条件下，产流条件改变使得河津站年均径流量减少了约47.11%；在1974-2008年间的降水条件下，产流条件改变使得河津站年均径流量减少了约55.20%。

关键词: 降水, 径流, 产流条件, 多元动态回归

Abstract:

Quantitative analysis of the sharp decrease of runoff is an urgent problem to be solved in the water resources sustainable utilization and management in Fenhe basin. Firstly, double cumulative curve of precipitation and runoff was applied to divide the evolution process of runoff yield mechanism in the basin into two periods of 1956-1973 and 1974-2008, and the precipitation series of the basin was divided into wet, normal and dry state by means of anomaly method. On the basis of the analysis mentioned above, the multivariate dynamic regression model was established between the runoff of the current year, the precipitation of the current year and the previous year. And the multivariate dynamic regression model was applied to the quantitative assessment for the impact of the precipitation variation and runoff-yield change on Fenhe River runoff. The result showed that, under the runoff-yield condition of Fenhe basin during 1956-1973, precipitation changes caused the annual runoff volume of Hejin hydrologic station reduced by an average of about 22.71%, while under the runoff-yield condition during 1974-2008, precipitation changes in the normal and dry state years caused the annual runoff volume of Hejin station decreasing by an average of about 18.95%; under the condition of precipitation in the normal and dry state years from 1956 to 1973, the runoff-yield change of Fenhe basin led to a decrease of runoff volume about 47.11%, while under the condition of precipitation during 1974-2008, the runoff-yield change of Fenhe basin led to a decrease of runoff volume about 55.20%.

Key words: precipitation, runoff, runoff yield condition, multivariate dynamic regression

中图分类号:

P333.6

牛军宜, 吴泽宁, 贾虎. 降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流影响的定量研究[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2016, 46(3): 814-823.

Niu Junyi, Wu Zening, Jia Hu. Quantitative Assessment for Impacts of Precipitation Variation and Runoff-Yield Change on Fenhe River Runoff[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2016, 46(3): 814-823.

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降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流影响的定量研究

Quantitative Assessment for Impacts of Precipitation Variation and Runoff-Yield Change on Fenhe River Runoff

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