Abstract:

In order to make landslide monitoring and forecasting accurate and efficient, the authors present a new method of landslide monitoring and forecasting system, which is based on the GIS technique and intergrates with GIS by linking to input the MapGIS graphics files. In this system, the characteristics of landslide area is adopted to realize spatial data processing for the characteristics of landslides in different periods by using various types of forecasting module. And then it restores the results into the graphics types and can be visualized by the programming with language Visual Basic 6.0. Various types of field monitoring have been carried out in geological disaste prevetion of Fushun west open-pit. Through GPS stations and other monitoring facilities, the system has been applied in the prevention work of Fushun west open-pit geological disaster, and relevant conclusion about landslide period and displacement trend are drawn by landslide prediction after the partition module processing. Take profile E3200 landslide as an example, combined with non-linear regression analysis and quadratic curve fitting, the short-term forecasting data, velocity, acceleration and other parameters of monitoring points X-3 and point X-5 have been gained. It can be concluded that the landslide is at the stage of uniform deformation and the displacement has a convergence trend according to the rules that the vertical maximum acceleration is positive, the vertical negative acceleration is less than 10^-5m/d² and the level acceleration is negative.

Key words: landslide, monitoring, forecast, geographical information system