Abstract:

Abstract:Objective To evaluate the predictive values of ABCD,ABCD2,SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN score
 models for the patients with   high-risk transient ischemic attack(TIA)  to develop to  cerebral infarction in short and long term.
Methods The   ABCD,ABCD2,SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN scores of  235 cases of TIA patients were retrospectively analyzed.The incidence
of cerebral infarction was followed up for 7 d and 1 year,and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was drawn to calculate the area under  curve(AUC) to assess the accuracy of the score models,and compared with the original model and  the relative risk(RR) value was calculated.Results The 7 d-incidence and 1 year-incidence of cerebral infarction in the 235 TIA patients were 9.36 % and 20.43%．The AUC of ABCD,ABCD2, SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN models for 7 d were 0.70,
0.74,0.67, and 0.62.The  AUC of 1 year were 0.62,0.62,0.64, and 0.65.Compared with the orginal models,the RRs for 7 d of ABCD score model of the TIA patients in low,middle,and high risk groups were 0.09，0.92，and 0.72；the RRs of ABCD2 score model were 0.49，0.59，and 0.65;the RRs of SPI-Ⅱ score model were 0.58，0.
87, and 0.55；the RRs of ESSEN score model were 0.11，0.18，and 0.55.Conclusion ABCD,ABCD2,SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN score models
 can be  used to assess the risk of cerebral infarction after TIA in Chinese population.The  ABCD2 score model is of great value for short-term risk prediction,and the ESSEN score model is more value for long-term risk prediction.

Key words: risk assessment, transient ischemic attack , cerebral infarction