时域克里格方法在地表水水质预测中的应用

时域克里格方法在地表水水质预测中的应用

高彦伟^1，2，董德明¹，陈殿友²，张岩坤¹，韩晓华²

1.吉林大学环境与资源学院，长春 130012;2.吉林大学数学学院，长春 130012

收稿日期:2007-09-24 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-05-26 发布日期:2008-05-26
通讯作者: 高彦伟

Application of Krige Method in Time Domain in Forecast of Surface Water Quality

GAO Yan-wei1，2, DONG De-ming¹, CHEN Dian-you², ZHANG Yan-kun¹，HAN Xiao-hua²

1.College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012,China;2.College of Mathematics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012,China

Received:2007-09-24 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-05-26 Published:2008-05-26
Contact: GAO Yan-wei

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 给出了纯时间域中普通克里格方法(TOK)的基本形式和其变异函数的性质，再依据扎龙湿地5年水体中BOD、DO、COD质量浓度的观测数据,利用该方法对2005-2009年的变化趋势进行了预测，在满足最小方差的条件下，使估计是无偏的。结果表明,这5年内湿地水体中DO和BOD质量浓度变化趋势不明显，但COD质量浓度却明显上升，说明湿地的水质正在发生变化，要减少进入湿地的污水量，加强污水处理，这样才能防止水质的进一步恶化。

关键词: 时域克里格方法, 地表水, 水质预测

Abstract: The authors studied the basic theories of statistics method of multivariate information in time domain and characters about variogram in the first. Based on the observation data of BOD,COD and DO from Zhalong wet land in recent five years,the method of multivariate information was used to predict the trend of the water quality in 2005-2009. Under the condition of minimum variance, this kind of method could make the estimation unbiased. The result implied the changed trend of DO and BOD content in water was not obviously, but the COD content moved upward obviously, and water quality was changing. So it is necessary to reduce the quantity of foul water into wetland and strengthened to treat foul water in order to prevent water quality to be worsen.

Key words: Krige method in time, surface water, forecast of water quality

中图分类号:

P641.69

高彦伟，董德明，陈殿友，张岩坤，韩晓华. 时域克里格方法在地表水水质预测中的应用[J]. J4, 2008, 38(3): 444-0447.

GAO Yan-wei1，2, DONG De-ming, CHEN Dian-you, ZHANG Yan-kun，HAN Xiao-hua. Application of Krige Method in Time Domain in Forecast of Surface Water Quality[J]. J4, 2008, 38(3): 444-0447.

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