寒区渠基黏土热参数最优概率分布

doi:10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.20190259

吉林大学学报(地球科学版) ›› 2021, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (2): 473-482.doi: 10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.20190259

• 地质工程与环境工程 • 上一篇

寒区渠基黏土热参数最优概率分布

石梁宏, 李双洋

中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冻土工程国家重点实验室, 兰州 730000

收稿日期:2019-12-04 发布日期:2021-04-06
通讯作者: 李双洋(1980-),研究员,博士,主要从事冻土力学与寒区岩土工程方面的研究工作,E-mail:lisy@lzb.ac.cn E-mail:lisy@lzb.ac.cn
作者简介:石梁宏(1995-),工程师,主要从事寒区岩土工程方面的研究,E-mail:shilh@lzb.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC0405101）；国家自然科学基金项目（41672315）；西藏自治区科技计划项目（XZ201801-GB-07）；中国科学院青年创新促进会项目（Y201975）；冻土工程国家重点实验室自主研究课题（SKLFSE-ZQ-53）

Optimal Probability Distribution of Thermal Conductivity Parameters of Canal Foundation Clay in Cold Regions

Shi Lianghong, Li Shuangyang

State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2019-12-04 Published:2021-04-06
Supported by:
Supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC0405101), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41672315),the Science and Technology Program of Tibet Autonomous Region (XZ201801-GB-07),the Program of Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS (Y201975) and the Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering (SKLFSE-ZQ-53)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为分析寒区渠基黏土热参数的随机分布特征及概率分布模型，以寒区渠基黏土的导热系数为样本，结合经典分布拟合法、多项式逼近法、最大熵法和正态信息扩散法，分别对寒区渠基黏土热参数的概率分布规律进行了研究。首先通过分析热参数的离散性，并比较概率分布曲线、拟合检验值和累计概率分布值，对不同方法描述热参数随机性的优劣进行了评价；然后，基于寒区渠基黏土热学参数对温度的敏感性，提出了一个可以达到理想拟合精度的寒区渠基黏土热参数概率推断的区间取值标准。研究结果表明：寒区渠基黏土的热参数具有随机变量的特征；正态信息扩散法可以描述热参数样本的随机波动性；在4种方法中，正态信息扩散法的拟合精度最高。使用3.5σ法，将[μ-3.5σ，μ+3.5σ]（μ为随机变量的均值，σ为标准差）作为概率函数推断时的取值区间，同时考虑偏度的影响，可使得累计概率值达到1.000 0的精度，能够较准确地推断热参数的概率分布函数。

关键词: 渠道, 冻土, 热参数, 概率分布, 寒区

Abstract: In order to analyze the random distribution characteristics and probability distribution model, taking the thermal conductivity of canal foundation clay in cold regions as a sample, the probability distribution laws of the thermal parameters of frozen soils were inferred by using the classical distribution fitting method, polynomial method, maximum entropy method, and normal information diffusion method. Through analyzing the dispersion of thermal parameters and comparing the probability distribution curve, fitting test values, and cumulative probability distribution values, the advantages and disadvantages of different methods to describe the randomness of thermal parameters were evaluated. The results show that the thermal parameters of canal foundation clay are variable in cold regions. The random fluctuation of thermal parameters can be described by the normal information diffusion method. Among the four methods, the fitting precision of the normal information diffusion method is the highest. Based on the sensitivity of the thermal parameters of canal foundation clay to temperature, a standard with an ideal fitting precision is put forward for determining the probabilistic inference interval of the thermal parameters of frozen soils.

Key words: canal, frozen soils, thermal parameters, probability distribution, cold regions

中图分类号:

TU411.2

石梁宏, 李双洋. 寒区渠基黏土热参数最优概率分布[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2021, 51(2): 473-482.

Shi Lianghong, Li Shuangyang. Optimal Probability Distribution of Thermal Conductivity Parameters of Canal Foundation Clay in Cold Regions[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2021, 51(2): 473-482.

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寒区渠基黏土热参数最优概率分布

Optimal Probability Distribution of Thermal Conductivity Parameters of Canal Foundation Clay in Cold Regions

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