Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition)

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Warning and Forecasting Model of Flood Geological Hazards Based on Combined Weight Method

Tao Zhansheng1,2, Wang Xinmin1,Wu Zhiqiang1，Yang Ping1,Qin Xiwen3   

  1. 1.Institute of Applied Mathematics, Changchun University of Technology, Changchun100032, China;
    2.Shanxi Lanhua Coalbed Methane Co., Ltd, Jincheng048000, Shanxi, China;
    3.College of Basic Science, Changchun University of Technology, Changchun100032, China
  • Received:2014-05-13 Online:2014-11-26 Published:2014-11-26

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Abstract:

The authors divided grades for the geological disaster-prone zone and rainfalls by weight method, and established a flood warning and forecasting model of geological disasters based on combination weights. Its effectiveness was tested for taking Jilin Province as an example. The study area was subdivided into 5 702 (5 km × 5 km) cells, and the possibility of geological disasters in each cell was forecasted in grade. By using the historical data of geological disasters and rainfalls, the forecast results are verified and the accurate rates reach 93.25%, which is reasonable and feasible.

Key words: combination weights, rainfall, geological disasters, warning and forecasting

CLC Number: 

  • X43
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