Abstract:

How to utilize the reasonable theory to research the rule of slipping prone stratum and carrie on the effective forecasting, it is always  urgently  demanded for the solution of geotechnical engineering. Shannon false neighbors model of time series theory are used to study the mechanism of slippery prone stratum deformation destruction. The equations of dynamics for slope evolution are founded based on the process of slope deformation. With the reconstruction in phase space, the formulas of relative dimension and delay time which represent the dynamic characteristics of slope are obtained. The Shannon false neighbors model could get the optimal embedding dimension,  extract and restore the original slope system by analyzing the process of slope deformation destruction. The calculated results of Gushuwu slope based on this new model show that the relative error may be controlled to be within 2%, the preliminary result is similar to actual displacement value. Engineering practice also prove that this model could ensure forecasting precision more than 95% during the initial deformation stage and constant deformation stage, and it is a kind of model that is worth further discussing.

Key words: slippery prone stratum, slope, chaos, false neighbors, time series, slope protection