Abstract:

A multimode traffic volume prediction model was proposed in the light of the multimode behavior of the traffic state. The traffic state was divided into 6 modes according to the level of service, and the relation between the traffic volume and the mode was studied. The proposed model estimates the variation of the traffic mode based on the historical data. On the basis of the ARIMA prediction model, the time-delay error in the ARIMA prediction was adjusted dynamically using a dynamic correction function.The experiments and analyses using the actual traffic flow data as a sample showed that the multimode traffic volume prediction model provides a better performance than the ARIMA model in single-step and multi-step predictions.

Key words: traffic engineering, traffic volume prediction, traffic state, multimode model