关键词: 发动机系统, Bayes网络, 灰色系统理论, 电磁脉冲易损性

Abstract: Firstly, aiming at the uncertainty problem of electromagnetic pulse vulnerability assessment of engine system under the background of limited test data and incomplete information,  we proposed  a grey Bayesian network model  to improve the processing ability of Bayesian network for  uncertain information by introducing the interval grey number in grey system theory  to characterize the uncertainty of components sensitivity threshold and fault logic relationship of engine system. Secondly, taking wideband high power microwave as an example, the interval gray number failure probability of engine system and the interval gray
 number posterior failure probability of sensor were calculated. The former represented the survivability of the whole engine system under the action of strong electromagnetic pulse, and the latter reflected the vulnerable sequence of each sensor under the failure condition of the engine system. The evaluation conclusions could  provide reference for electromagnetic protection design of vehicles.

Key words: engine system, Bayesian network, grey system theory, electromagnetic pulse vulnerability