Abstract: We proposed an attack path generation method based on a ttack feasibility analysis to solve the problem of attack path exist ing redundancy caused inaccurate calculation of nodes confidence in attack graph. By further improving likelihood weighting algorithm based on Bayesian inf erence, the algorithm could calculate the nodes confidence more accurately. Expe rimental results show that the improved algorithm effectively eliminates the red undant paths in the attack graph, thereby improvin g the accuracy of nodes confidence, and realizing the effective predictive analy sis of the attack path.

Key words: information security technology, path revenue calculation, feasibility of attack, effective prediction of path