基于改进SEIR算法的疫情传播趋势检测方法

Journal of Jilin University Science Edition ›› 2021, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (6): 1511-1516.

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Epidemic Propagation Trend Detection Based on Improved SEIR Algorithm

YAN Yang¹, GUO Haoyu¹, WEI Yuhang², YOU Ziru¹, XIAO Zhiqiang³, HUANG Wenbo¹

1. School of Computer Science and Technology, Changchun Normal University, Changchun 130032, China；2. The First Bethune Clinical Medical College of Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China; 3. College of Earth Sciences, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China

Received:2021-04-23 Online:2021-11-26 Published:2021-11-26

Abstract

Abstract: By optimizing and reconstructing the traditional SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) algorithm, we proposed an improved SEIR algorithm. The algorithm added attenuation function to the infection rate β, and the data were fitted to get the infection rate β that changed with time. Simulation results show that the average MSE (mean square error) of the algorithm on the test set is only 0.11, which significantly reduced the error value compared with other existing algorithm.

Key words: , susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) algorithm, attenuation function, ARIM algorithm, , propagation trend detection

CLC Number:

TP391

YAN Yang, GUO Haoyu, WEI Yuhang, YOU Ziru, XIAO Zhiqiang, HUANG Wenbo. Epidemic Propagation Trend Detection Based on Improved SEIR Algorithm[J].Journal of Jilin University Science Edition, 2021, 59(6): 1511-1516.

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Epidemic Propagation Trend Detection Based on Improved SEIR Algorithm

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