Abstract:

In order to reduce the demand for a large number of historical experience in the air defense operations with the second-hit situation based on Markov chain forecasting model, a state transition matrix derived algorithm is proposed. The special method is designed to obtain the state transition matrix with a small amount of historical data. Then a solution with improved damage matrix is put forward for the possible real damage in the war in order to evaluate  the exact battlefield situation.This algorithm can predict the threat evaluation of next round based on the results of previous striking.Simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Key words: probability theory, threat assessment, Markov chain, second-hit