J4 ›› 2012, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 1125-1129.

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Risk of Groundwater Allowable Withdrawal Evaluated Using Water Balance Method

 LIU Pei-gui, TAO Yue-zan   

  1. School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei230009, China
  • Received:2011-09-12 Online:2012-07-26 Published:2012-07-26

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Abstract:

Uncertain factors associated with limited samples have significant influence on the reliability of groundwater resources evaluation result. Groundwater table is a time-dependent stochastic variable during the well field exploration and operation. Therefore, take a confined aquifer of Jining City, Shandong Province as an example, the risk of prior probability distribution and posterior probability distribution are evaluated quantitatively with the fuzzy-stochastic model using Bayesian theory in this paper. The study results show that the fuzzy risk of groundwater over-drafted is increased   from 13.67% to 15.75%. Considering the time-dependent uncertain factors, the uncertain interval spacing becomes smaller from 5.64 to 3.60. Consequently, the pumping plan should be adjusted to guarantee the safe supply.

Key words: time-dependent uncertainty, Bayesian theory, risk, groundwater, extraction, water balance method

CLC Number: 

  • P641.8
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