吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8): 2106-2115.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20250061

• 交通运输工程·土木工程 • 上一篇    

轨迹数据驱动的出租车出行特征分析与时空分布建模

王君悦(),董春娇(),王菁,王明智   

  1. 北京交通大学 综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室，北京 100044
  • 收稿日期:2025-01-17 出版日期:2026-08-01 发布日期:2026-09-02
  • 通讯作者: 董春娇 E-mail:22110286@bjtu.edu.cn;cjdong@bjtu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:王君悦（1999-），女，博士研究生.研究方向：城市交通工程理论与技术.E-mail：22110286@bjtu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2019RC027)

Trajectory data⁃driven taxi travel characteristics analysis and spatial⁃temporal distribution modeling

Jun-yue WANG(),Chun-jiao DONG(),Jing WANG,Ming-zhi WANG   

  1. Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport，Beijing Jiaotong University，Beijing 100044，China
  • Received:2025-01-17 Online:2026-08-01 Published:2026-09-02
  • Contact: Chun-jiao DONG E-mail:22110286@bjtu.edu.cn;cjdong@bjtu.edu.cn

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摘要：

基于北京市出租车全球定位系统（GPS）轨迹数据，结合ArcGIS地图匹配功能，选定合适阈值构建了出租车出行信息数据库。首先，构建了出租车出行网络，结合核密度和热点分析方法，分析了出行轨迹空间分布特征和时序特征，揭示了出租车出行密度在早、晚高峰的变化趋势。然后，考虑土地利用性质对出租车出行分布的影响，建立了基于土地利用性质的双约束人口权重机会模型。结果表明，本文模型提高了出租车跨区出行的预测精度，均方根误差由4.54辆次降为4.41辆次，预测结果与真实数据的相似度由0.961提高为0.970，发生量平均相对误差由0.48%降为0.19%。

关键词: 城市交通, 出行特征, 人口权重机会模型, 土地利用性质, 出租车

Abstract:

Based on the global positioning system （GPS） trajectory data of taxis in Beijing and the map matching function of ArcGIS， appropriate threshold values were selected， a taxi travel information database was constructed， and the travel characteristics of taxis were analyzed. Firstly， a taxi travel network was built， and spatial and temporal distribution features of travel trajectories were analyzed using kernel density and hot spot analysis methods， revealing the changing trend of taxi travel density during peak hours. Then， considering the impact of land use on taxi travel distribution， a dual-constraint population weight opportunity model based on land use was established to predict taxi travel distribution. The results show that the model improves the prediction accuracy of taxi inter-district travel， with the root mean square error reduced from 4.54 trips to 4.41 trips， and the similarity between the predicted results and actual data improved from 0.961 to 0.970. The average relative error in the number of trips decreased from 0.48% to 0.19%.

Key words: urban traffic, travel characteristics, population weighted opportunity model, land use characteristics, taxis

中图分类号: 

  • U491

图1

出租车出行示意图"

图2

出租车出行特征指标分布特征"

图3

早晚高峰出租车轨迹分布"

表1

不同置信度临界p值和z得分的关系"

z得分p值置信度/%
<-1.65或>+1.65<0.1090
<-1.96或>+1.96<0.0595
<-2.58或>+2.58<0.0199

图4

2019年9月25日北京市出租车出行核密度及出行热点"

图5

目的地到起点的人口数量示意图"

图6

基于土地利用性质的双约束人口权重机会模型有效性检验及误差分析"

图7

北京市各区的出租车的发生量和吸引量"

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