关键词: 天然来水量, 丰枯补偿, Copula函数, 三维联合分布

Abstract:

Studying the compensation characteristics of the Luan River diversion reservoirs’ inflow, has great significance to optimal operation of the reservoir’s group in the middle and lower reaches of Luan River, and can provide scientific basis for the water resources rational allocation of this region. By using Copula functions, trivariate joint distribution was constructed among the natural inflow series of Panjiakou reservoir, Douhe reservoir and Yuqiao reservoir, and the probability of wetness-dryness that the natural inflow series of these reservoirs can encounter was analyzed. The result shows that the synchronous wetness-dryness encounter probability of the three inflow series is up to 46.96%, and the probability that Panjiakou reservoir fail to compensate Douhe reservoir and Yuqiao reservoir is about 30.2%.

Key words: natural inflow series, wetness-dryness compensation characteristics, Copula functions, three dimensional joint distribution