滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性——以云南头寨沟为例

doi:10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201701201

吉林大学学报(地球科学版) ›› 2017, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (1): 154-162.doi: 10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201701201

滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性——以云南头寨沟为例

徐则民¹, 梅雪峰^1,2, 王礼荣³, 张有为¹, 曾强¹, 郭丽丽³

1. 昆明理工大学土木系, 昆明 650500;
2. 西南交通大学地质工程系, 成都 610031;
3. 昆明理工大学地球科学系, 昆明 650093

收稿日期:2016-05-28 出版日期:2017-01-26 发布日期:2017-01-26
通讯作者: 梅雪峰(1987),男,博士研究生,主要从事地质灾害方面的研究,E-mail:swxfmei@163.com E-mail:swxfmei@163.com
作者简介:徐则民(1963),男,教授,主要从事滑坡灾害孕育过程方面的研究,E-mail:abc5100@188.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（U1502232）；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目（20135314110005）

Precipitation Temporal and Variability of Landslide Early Warning Research: A Case Study on Touzhai Gully in Yunnan Province

Xu Zemin¹, Mei Xuefeng^1,2, Wang Lirong³, Zhang Youwei¹, Zeng Qiang¹, Guo Lili³

1. Department of Civil Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China;
2. Department of Geological Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China;
3. Department of Earth Science, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China

Received:2016-05-28 Online:2017-01-26 Published:2017-01-26
Supported by:
Supported bythe National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1502232) and the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of China(20135314110005)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目前已有大量不同尺度的临界降水标准对区域性滑坡进行预警,但仍存在预警空间外延性差、时间精度低、临界降水阈值不科学等问题。针对当前构建的临界降水阈值实现滑坡预警模型,以云南昭通盘河流域头寨沟为例,在研究区两个不同海拔高度位置分别布设气象站,进行了为期一年的降水观测,并比较了研究区两个不同位置的降水特征。结果表明：研究区降水梯度高达190 mm/hm,两个不同海拔位置降水变异性显著；降水持时是造成山上（2#站）与山下（1#站）次降水量差异的主要影响因素；发生小雨时2#站与1#站的降水差异性很小,但1#站发生中雨及以上的降水事件时,2#站的降水等级比1#站高1~2个等级,且有59.26%的概率会发生大雨或者暴雨；1#站为暴雨时,2#站100.00%概率为暴雨甚至大暴雨；2#站与1#站夜间降水均大于白昼,且强降水事件多发生于夜间。

关键词: 降雨(降水), 滑坡, 伽马分布, 滑坡预警, 降水的时空变异性

Abstract: There is a large number of critical precipitation standard with different scales of regional landslide early warning, but the models are still exist some problems such as poor extensionality in warning space, low accuracy in warning time and unsuitable critical precipitation threshold. For establishing the landslide early warning model by the critical precipitation threshold, taken as an example of Touzhai gully which is located in Pan River basin, Zhaotong, Yunnan Province, two weather stations in different altitude in the study area are set up respectively. The paper compared characteristics of precipitation of the two different locations based on one year observed data of precipitation. The precipitation of the two positions varies significantly with altitude as the precipitation gradient is up to 190 mm/hm. The difference of the precipitation duration is the main contribution factor of the difference of precipitation between 1# and 2# of this area. The precipitation difference between 1# and 2# are very small when it rains lightly, but it will have 1-2 levels when it rains heavily in 2# and there is 59.26% probability of heavily rainfall. When there is a rainstorm in 1#, the probability of heavy rain and even rainstorm in 2# is 100%. The precipitation at night is greater than during the day in no matter 1# or 2#, most of heavy precipitation events occurred in the night.

Key words: precipitation (rainfall), landslide, Gamma distribution, landslide early warning, temporal and spatial variability of precipitation

中图分类号:

P694

徐则民, 梅雪峰, 王礼荣, 张有为, 曾强, 郭丽丽. 滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性——以云南头寨沟为例[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(1): 154-162.

Xu Zemin, Mei Xuefeng, Wang Lirong, Zhang Youwei, Zeng Qiang, Guo Lili. Precipitation Temporal and Variability of Landslide Early Warning Research: A Case Study on Touzhai Gully in Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2017, 47(1): 154-162.

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滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性——以云南头寨沟为例

Precipitation Temporal and Variability of Landslide Early Warning Research: A Case Study on Touzhai Gully in Yunnan Province

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