关键词: 时变不确定性, 贝叶斯理论, 风险率, 地下水, 开采量, 水均衡法

Abstract:

Uncertain factors associated with limited samples have significant influence on the reliability of groundwater resources evaluation result. Groundwater table is a time-dependent stochastic variable during the well field exploration and operation. Therefore, take a confined aquifer of Jining City, Shandong Province as an example, the risk of prior probability distribution and posterior probability distribution are evaluated quantitatively with the fuzzy-stochastic model using Bayesian theory in this paper. The study results show that the fuzzy risk of groundwater over-drafted is increased   from 13.67% to 15.75%. Considering the time-dependent uncertain factors, the uncertain interval spacing becomes smaller from 5.64 to 3.60. Consequently, the pumping plan should be adjusted to guarantee the safe supply.

Key words: time-dependent uncertainty, Bayesian theory, risk, groundwater, extraction, water balance method