Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition) ›› 2016, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 865-875.doi: 10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201603208

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Scenario Simulation on Changing Pattern of Land Use for Wetland in the West of Jilin Province

Liu Yan1,2, Liu Jiping1,2, Sheng Lianxi2   

  1. 1. College of Tourist and Geoscience, Jilin Normal University, Siping 136000, Jilin, China;
    2. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China
  • Received:2015-09-23 Online:2016-05-26 Published:2016-05-26
  • Supported by:

    Supported by Science and Technology Development Program of Jilin Province (20100425, 20130101097JC)

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Abstract:

Wetlands have important eco-environmental functions in the west of Jilin Province that located in ecologically fragile zone. In recent years wetlands changed significantly in the west of Jilin Province because of more anthropogenic interference. In order to strengthen wetland functions and improve regional eco-environment, this paper simulated wetland spatial pattern in 2020 by using CLUE-S model, and set up three scenarios of wetland change, including 1) natural development scenario, 2) planning priority scenario and 3) ecological construction priority scenario based on the analysis on wetland change in the west of Jilin Province from 2000 to 2010. This paper also analyzed the characteristics of wetland spatial distribution and evaluated landscape anti-interference abilities in three different scenarios, and made clear the differences among three wetland patterns and explored reasonable wetland patterns. The results showed that average correct rate of predication on all types of land in the study area was 84.54%, with κ index of 0.83, which indicated that CLUE-S model can well simulate land-use changes in 2020, especially for marshes, waters, and residential land. Wetland patterns in three scenarios have obvious differences. The centroids of marshes and waters respectively tended to move to southwest and southeast in three scenarios, while the centroid of paddy fields of scenario 1 moved to northeast and that of scenario 2 and 3 moved to south. Marshes and paddy fields of scenario 3 have a stronger assemblage than those of scenario 1, while waters of scenario 1 have a stronger assemblage than those of scenario 3. From 2010 to 2020, in scenario 1, the landscape interference indexes of all types of wetlands all increased gradually, while in scenario 2 and scenario 3, the landscape interference indexes of marshes and waters all show a drop trend, especially the decrement in scenario 3 is the maximum, which indicated that wetland landscape has a stronger anti-interference ability when ecological construction priority scenario is implemented.

Key words: wetland pattern, scenario simulation, CLUE-S model, west Jilin Province

CLC Number: 

  • S156.8

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