Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition) ›› 2019, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (6): 1795-1804.doi: 10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.20180312

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Dynamic Change and Predictive Analysis of Land Use Types in Changchun City Based on FLUS Model

Wang Mingchang1,2, Guo Xin1, Wang Fengyan1, Zhang Xinyue1   

  1. 1. College of GeoExploration Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation Ministry of Land and Resources, Shenzhen 518000, Guangdong, China
  • Received:2018-11-27 Published:2019-11-30
  • Supported by:
    Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41430322),Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Land and Resources(KF-2018-03-020)and the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Land Subsidence Monitoring and Prevention,Ministry of Land and Resources of China (KLLSMP201901)

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Abstract: Studying the pattern and driving factors of urban and rural land use change is conducive to the sustainable development of regional land resources. Taking Changchun City as an example, combined with manual interpretation, the overall accuracy of the Landsat satellite supervised classification images in 1997, 2007 and 2017, is 93.06%, 90.70%,and 94.12%, respectively. From 1997 to 2017, the grassland, cultivated land and other land area decreased by 354.74 km2, 922.11 km2,and 55.35 km2 respectively, and the construction land, water area, and forest land increased by 1 154.14 km2, 70.38 km2, and 107.54 km2 respectively. The overall trend is that the construction land expanded to the periphery and encroached on the area of other land types. Based on the 2007 classification data, combined with the driving factors of land use change of terrain, traffic location and social economy, the land use pattern was simulated for 2017 with FLUS (future land use simulation) model. The simulation is in good agreement with the real results. The simulation accuracy is 85.10%, Kappa coefficient is 0.821 2, and the verification model and the driving factors are reliable and consistent with the trend of land use change. The model is used to predict the land use pattern of 2027, showing that the construction land will slowly invade the area of cultivated land, forest land, grassland and other land around the town, and the area of forest land and water will increase.

Key words: dynamic change, FLUS model, scenario simulation, predictive analysis, Changchun City

CLC Number: 

  • P237
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