Abstract:

Debris flow risk assessment is one of the most important part in geological disaster evaluation. The authors combine the projection pursuit cluster model（PPC） with extenics method to establish a new risk assessment model. Based on the structural characteristics of the raw data, the authors find out the best projection mode which can reflect the most objective and comprehensive eigenvalue. Extenics is used to resolve the contradiction between the uncertainty of mud-rock flow system and the certainty of the system, the relationship of factors and evaluation criteria is extended to the distances between factors and evaluation criteria, which describes the quantitative characteristics of debris flow risk.

Key words: PPC, extenics, debris flow, risk assessment