吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2014, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (01): 62-67.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201401011

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Analysis of gray-Markov forecasting for traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region

ZHAN Wei, LYU Qing, SHANG Yue-quan   

  1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
  • Received:2012-08-01 Online:2014-01-01 Published:2014-01-01

Abstract:

Based on the original data of traffic accidents in a typical highway tunnel group region, a grey forecasting model, which is modified by residual error model, is proposed to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The forecasting accuracy is improved by introducing Markov optimization. Compared with commonly used forecasting method, the proposed method in this paper has a better forecasting accuracy and practicality in a period. It can be used for the forecasting analysis of traffic accidents and for security early warning in highway tunnel group region.

Key words: transportation safety engineering, highway tunnel group, traffic accident forecast, grey model, Markov optimization

CLC Number: 

  • U491.3

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