吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 769-775.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201503013

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Modeling of excess zeros issue in crash count andysis

XU Jian1, 2, SUN Lu1, 3   

  1. 1.School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210096, China;
    2.Center for Transportation Research, University of Texas at Austin, Austin 78712, USA;
    3. Department of Civil Engineering, Catholic University of America, Washington DC 20064, USA
  • Received:2013-08-12 Online:2015-05-01 Published:2015-05-01

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Abstract: The performances of several mathematical models are evaluated for the investigation of the excess zeros issue in crash data analysis. These models include: zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models, multiple zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models, Poisson- and binomial-Lindley models. In the evaluation several goodness-of-fit measures are employed, including Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Mean Absolute Deviance (MAD), Mean Square Predictive Error (MSPE), Maximum Cumulative Residual Plot Deviance (MCPD) and Cross-Validation assessment (CV). The evaluation is conducted based on the crash data sets of a state of USA in year 2010, and Markov chain and Monte Carlo methods are used. Statistic results show that Lindley models are preferred to multilevel zero-inflated models; among all the six models, the negative binomial-Lindley performs the best.

Key words: traffic and transportation safety engineering, crash count, zero-inflated models, multilevel zero-inflated models, Lindley models, goodness-of-fit

CLC Number: 

  • U491.31
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