吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2013, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (06): 1482-1487.doi: 10.7964/jdxbgxb201306008

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Real-time prediction of rear-end crashes near freeway recurrent bottlenecks

LI Zhi-bin1, LIU Pan1, JIN Mao-jing2, XU Cheng-cheng1   

  1. 1. School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China;
    2. High Technology Research and Development Center of Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing 100044, China
  • Received:2012-05-28 Online:2013-11-01 Published:2013-11-01

Abstract:

To predict the real-time collision risk for rear-end crashes at freeway recurrent bottlenecks, in this study, the features of trajectories of individual vehicles when encountering kinematic waves were investigated, the collision conditions were analyzed, aggregate analysis of the trajectories of multiple vehicles was conducted. Then a model to predict the collision risks was developed using aggregated traffic flow data. Results show that the rear-end collision probability during propagation of kinematic waves was significantly related to the collision risk index and standard deviation of upstream occupancy. The model was used to predict the collisions in the bottleneck section of a real-world freeway;the predictions were consistent with observations. The highest collision risk occurs when traffic changes from free-flow to congested states. The propagation of kinematic waves in congested traffic also increases the rear-end collision risk.

Key words: traffic safety engineering, rear-end collision, real-time prediction, recurrent congestion, kinematic wave

CLC Number: 

  • U491

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