关键词: 威布尔分布, 参数估计, 模糊逻辑, 粒子群算法, 模拟退火算法

Abstract:

To solve the problem of the difficulty in estimating the parameters of Weibull distribution model, a new algorithm based on FPSO(Fuzzy Particle Swarm Optimization) with SA(Simulated Annealing) for estimating the parameters of Weibull distribution model was presented. In this intelligent algorithm, the inertia factor of PSO was turned by adopting fuzzy logic reasoning to improve the convergence rate of the PSO(Particle Swarm Optimization) according to the characteristic of particle's motion trajectory in longitudinal direction and lateral direction. Then combine the FPSO and SA, use the update formulas of FPSO as the state generating function of SA, and use Metropolis algorithm to accept the new state with probability to get the global optimal parameters' estimations. The parameter estimation method based on the intelligent algorithm above mentioned was used to estimate the parameters of Weibull distribution model, and the parameter estimation accuracy was improved. Practical application in the complex distribution model parameter estimation showed that the method was feasible and effective.

Key words: weibull distribution, estimate parameter, fuzzy logic, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing algorithm