关键词: 无人机, 系统动力学, 作战效能评估, 兰彻斯特方程, 灵敏度分析

Abstract: Air combat is an intense, complex, and continuous process, filled with many influencing factors,complex interactions, and uncertainties. Aiming at the problem of low accuracy of UAV ( Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) cluster air combat effectiveness assessment, a method based on System Dynamics is proposed. The interactions between various factors is analyzed in the UAV air combat system during a reconnaissance and strike mission carried out by the red formation. A causal relationship model and a stock flow model are established.The evaluation indicators of combat effectiveness are constructed based on three aspects: combat effect, combat
efficiency, and combat cost. These indicators include mission completion, combat efficiency, and combat loss rate. Then, the influencing factors of the air combat system and the combat effectiveness under different equipment schemes are studied. finally the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through simulation, which solves the complexity and uncertainty problems arising in the assessment process.

Key words: unmanned aerial vehicle ( UAV ), system dynamics, operational effectiveness evaluation, lanchester equation, sensitivity analysis