吉林大学学报(地球科学版) ›› 2016, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1): 175-186.doi: 10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201601201
彭令1,2, 徐素宁2, 彭军还1
Peng Ling1,2, Xu Suning2, Peng Junhuan1
摘要:
滑坡风险管理是防灾减灾的有效途径之一,而灾害风险评价是风险管理的基础和依据。以三峡库首区为研究区、多源遥感影像为主要数据源,利用立体像对技术及光谱分析等方法快速提取地形地貌、地表覆被、地质及水文条件等滑坡孕灾环境信息,应用随机森林模型分析区域滑坡危险性;采用面向对象方法建立典型承灾体识别规则,快速提取建筑物及交通道路等信息,综合分析滑坡危险性及承灾体信息,以实现区域滑坡灾害风险评价。结果显示:高风险区面积为41 km2,约占研究区面积的9%,主要集中于人口聚集的城镇和交通建设用地等经济价值大的地区。其评价结果与野外实地调查情况基本吻合。
中图分类号:
[1] Sassa K, Rouhban B, Briceño S, et al. Landslides:Global Risk Preparedness[M]. Berlin:Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013.[2] Australian Geomechanics Society (AGS). Landslide Risk Management Concepts and Guidelines[J]. Australian Geomechanics, 2000, 35(1):49-92.[3] Spiker E C, Gori P. National Landslide Hazards Mitigation Strategy:A Framework for Loss Reduction[R]. Virginia:Reston Press, 2003.[4] Wise M P, Moore G D, VanDine D F. Landslide Risk Case Studies in Forest Development Planning and Operations[EB/OL].[2014-12-10] http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfd/pubs/Docs/Lmh/Lmh56.htm.[5] Lateltin O, Haemmig C, Raetzo H, et al. Landslide Risk Management in Switzerland[J]. Landslides, 2005, 2(4):313-320.[6] Fell R, Corominas J, Bonnard C, et al. Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning[J]. Engineering Geology, 2008, 102(3/4):85-98.[7] Porter M, Morgenstern N. Landslide Risk Evaluation:Canadian Technical Guidelines and Best Practices Related to Landslides:A National Initiative for Loss Reduction[EB/OL].[2014-12-10] http://geoscan.nrcan.gc.ca.[8] Corominas J, Westen C, Frattini P, et al. Recommendations for the Quantitative Analysis of Landslide Risk[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2014, 73(2):209-263.[9] Bell R, Glade T. Quantitative Risk Analysis for Lan-dslides:Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2004, 4:117-131.[10] Remondo J, Bonachea J, Cendrero A. Quantitative Landslide Risk Assessment and Mapping on the Basis of Recent Occurrences[J]. Geomorphology, 2008, 94:496-507.[11] Zêzere J L, Garcia R A C, Oliveira S C, et al. Probabilistic Landslide Risk Analysis Considering Direct Costs in the Area North of Lisbon (Portugal)[J]. Geomorphology, 2008, 94:467-495.[12] Pellicani R, Van Westen C J, Spilotro G. Assessing Landslide Exposure in Areas with Limited Landslide Information[J]. Landslides, 2014, 11(3):463-480.[13] 马寅生,张业成,张春山,等.地质灾害风险评价的理论与方法[J].地质力学学报,2004,10(1):7-18. Ma Yinsheng, Zhang Yecheng, Zhang Chunshan, et al. Theory and Approaches to the Risk Evaluation of Geological Hazards[J]. Journal of Geomechanics, 2004, 10(1):7-18.[14] 汪华斌, 吴树仁. 滑坡灾害风险评价的关键理论与技术方法[J]. 地质通报,2008,27(11):1764-1770. Wang Huabin, Wu Shuren. Key Theory and Method of Landslide Hazard Risk Assessments[J]. Geological Bulletin of China, 2008, 27(11):1764-1770.[15] 胡瑞林,范林峰,王珊珊,等. 滑坡风险评价的理论与方法研究[J]. 工程地质学报,2013,21(1):76-84. Hu Ruilin, Fan Linfeng, Wang Shanshan, et al. Theory and Method for Landslide Risk Assessment:Current Status and Future Development[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2013, 21(1):76-84.[16] 乔建平,王萌,石莉莉. 区域滑坡风险评估中的风险区划与概率分析[J]. 自然灾害学报,2012,21(2):51-56. Qiao Jianping, Wang Meng, Shi Lili. Risk Zoning and Probability Analysis of Regional Landslide Risk Assessment[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2012, 21(2):51-56.[17] 殷坤龙,张桂荣,陈丽霞,等. 滑坡灾害风险分析[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2010. Yin Kunlong, Zhang Guirong, Chen Lixia, et al. Risk Analysis of Landslide Hazard[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2010.[18] 吴树仁,石菊松,张春山,等.滑坡风险评估理论与技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2012. Wu Shuren, Shi Jusong, Zhang Chunshan, et al. The Theory and Technology of Landslide Risk Assessment[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2012.[19] 石菊松. 基于遥感和地理信息系统的滑坡风险评估关键技术研究[D]. 北京:中国地质科学院,2008. Shi Jusong. Key Techniques Study of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System Based Landslide Risk Assessment[D]. Beijing:China Academy of Geological Sciences, 2008.[20] 唐亚明,张茂省,薛强. 一种大比例尺的滑坡风险区划方法:以延安市区黄土滑坡风险评价为例[J]. 地质通报,2011,30(1):166-172. Tang Yaming, Zhang Maosheng, Xue Qiang. Landslide Risk Assessment Methods and Flow on a Large Scale:A Case Study of Loess Landslides Risk Assessment in Yan'an Urban Districts, Shaanxi, China[J]. Geological Bulletin of China, 2011, 30(1):166-172.[21] 彭令,牛瑞卿,赵艳南,等. 区域滑坡灾害风险评估:以长江三峡库区秭归县境内为例[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2013,43(3):891-901. Peng Ling, Niu Ruiqing, Zhao Yannan, et al. Risk Assessment of a Regional Landslide:A Case of Zigui County Territory in Three Gorges Reservoir[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2013, 43(3):891-901.[22] Akgun A, K?ncal C, Pradhan B. Application of Remote Sensing Data and GIS for Landslide Risk Assessment as an Environmental Threat to Izmir City (West Turkey)[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2012, 184(9):1-18.[23] 王孔伟,张帆,邱殿明.三峡库区黄陵背斜形成机理及与滑坡群关系[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2015,45(4):1142-1154. Wang Kongwei, Zhang Fan, Qiu Dianming. Relation of Huangling Anticline and Landslide Group in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2015,45(4):1142-1154.[24] 地质矿产部编写组. 长江三峡工程库岸稳定性研究[M]. 北京:地质出版社,1988. Working Group of Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources. Unstability Problems of the Slope Along Yangtze River in the Region of the Three Gorges Project[M]. Beijing:Geological Publishing House, 1988.[25] 牛瑞卿,彭令,叶润青,等. 基于粗糙集的支持向量机滑坡易发性评价[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2012,42(2):431-439. Niu Ruiqing, Peng Ling, Ye Runqing, et al. Lan-dslide Susceptibility Assessment Based on Rough Sets and Support Vector Machine[J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2012, 42(2):431-439.[26] Breiman L. Random Forests[J]. Machine Learning, 2001, 45(1):5-32. |
[1] | 赵金童, 牛瑞卿, 姚琦, 武雪玲. 雷达数据辅助下的滑坡易发性评价[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2018, 48(4): 1182-1191. |
[2] | 郑确, 刘财, 田有. 辽宁海城及其邻区地震b值空间分布特征[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2018, 48(3): 922-933. |
[3] | 王明常, 张馨月, 张旭晴, 王凤艳, 牛雪峰, 王红. 基于极限学习机的GF-2影像分类[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2018, 48(2): 373-378. |
[4] | 谭福林, 胡新丽, 张玉明, 何春灿, 章涵. 考虑渐进破坏过程的滑坡推力计算方法[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2018, 48(1): 193-202. |
[5] | 景先庆, 杨振宇, 仝亚博, 王恒, 徐颖超. 三峡地区新元古代莲沱组底部凝灰岩锆石SHRIMP U-Pb年代学及其地质意义[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2018, 48(1): 165-180. |
[6] | 付建康, 罗刚, 胡卸文. 滑坡堰塞坝越顶溢流破坏的物理模型实验[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2018, 48(1): 203-212. |
[7] | 闫佰忠, 邱淑伟, 肖长来, 梁秀娟. 长白山玄武岩区地热异常区遥感识别[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(6): 1819-1828. |
[8] | 李鹏, 苏生瑞, 马驰, 黄璜, 徐继维. 堆积层-基岩接触面滑坡的形成机理——以祖师庙滑坡为例[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(5): 1471-1479. |
[9] | 王孔伟, 常德龙, 李春波, 胡安龙, 魏东. 再论“滑坡群”——以三峡库区为例[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(5): 1491-1501. |
[10] | 秦胜伍, 马中骏, 刘绪, 李广杰, 彭帅英, 陈骏骏, 翟健健. 基于简化Newmark模型的长白山天池火山诱发崩塌滑坡危险性评价[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(3): 826-838. |
[11] | 张施跃, 束龙仓, 闵星, 胡慧杰, 邹志科. 基于土地利用类型的大气降水入渗补给量计算[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(3): 860-867. |
[12] | 李晓东, 姜琦刚. 吉林西部多时相遥感数据分类方案的构建及应用[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(3): 907-915. |
[13] | 徐则民, 梅雪峰, 王礼荣, 张有为, 曾强, 郭丽丽. 滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性——以云南头寨沟为例[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(1): 154-162. |
[14] | 安玉科, 吴玮江, 张文, 姚青青, 宋建, 张宏宏. 抗滑桩裂纹控制荷载结构设计法及工程应用[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2017, 47(1): 171-178. |
[15] | 刘海龙, 马小龙, 袁欣, 穆环玲, 冷冰原, 洪梅. 基于多元回归分析的铬污染地下水风险评价方法[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2016, 46(6): 1823-1829. |
|