Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition) ›› 2016, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 814-823.doi: 10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201603203

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Quantitative Assessment for Impacts of Precipitation Variation and Runoff-Yield Change on Fenhe River Runoff

Niu Junyi1,2,3, Wu Zening2, Jia Hu3   

  1. 1. Shool of Civil Engineering & Architecture, Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang 441053, Hubei, China;
    2. Post-Doctorate Research Station of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
    3. Academy of Civil Engineering & Architecture, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, Henan, China
  • Received:2015-10-05 Online:2016-05-26 Published:2016-05-26
  • Supported by:

    Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51374100), the Key Program of Science Foundation for University and Colleges in Henan Province of China (15A110037) and Humanities and Social Science Project of the Education Department of Henan Province, China(2015-GH-390)

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Abstract:

Quantitative analysis of the sharp decrease of runoff is an urgent problem to be solved in the water resources sustainable utilization and management in Fenhe basin. Firstly, double cumulative curve of precipitation and runoff was applied to divide the evolution process of runoff yield mechanism in the basin into two periods of 1956-1973 and 1974-2008, and the precipitation series of the basin was divided into wet, normal and dry state by means of anomaly method. On the basis of the analysis mentioned above, the multivariate dynamic regression model was established between the runoff of the current year, the precipitation of the current year and the previous year. And the multivariate dynamic regression model was applied to the quantitative assessment for the impact of the precipitation variation and runoff-yield change on Fenhe River runoff. The result showed that, under the runoff-yield condition of Fenhe basin during 1956-1973, precipitation changes caused the annual runoff volume of Hejin hydrologic station reduced by an average of about 22.71%, while under the runoff-yield condition during 1974-2008, precipitation changes in the normal and dry state years caused the annual runoff volume of Hejin station decreasing by an average of about 18.95%; under the condition of precipitation in the normal and dry state years from 1956 to 1973, the runoff-yield change of Fenhe basin led to a decrease of runoff volume about 47.11%, while under the condition of precipitation during 1974-2008, the runoff-yield change of Fenhe basin led to a decrease of runoff volume about 55.20%.

Key words: precipitation, runoff, runoff yield condition, multivariate dynamic regression

CLC Number: 

  • P333.6

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