Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition) ›› 2016, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 814-823.doi: 10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201603203

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Quantitative Assessment for Impacts of Precipitation Variation and Runoff-Yield Change on Fenhe River Runoff

Niu Junyi1,2,3, Wu Zening2, Jia Hu3   

  1. 1. Shool of Civil Engineering & Architecture, Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang 441053, Hubei, China;
    2. Post-Doctorate Research Station of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
    3. Academy of Civil Engineering & Architecture, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, Henan, China
  • Received:2015-10-05 Online:2016-05-26 Published:2016-05-26
  • Supported by:

    Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51374100), the Key Program of Science Foundation for University and Colleges in Henan Province of China (15A110037) and Humanities and Social Science Project of the Education Department of Henan Province, China(2015-GH-390)

PDF (PC)

336

Abstract:

Quantitative analysis of the sharp decrease of runoff is an urgent problem to be solved in the water resources sustainable utilization and management in Fenhe basin. Firstly, double cumulative curve of precipitation and runoff was applied to divide the evolution process of runoff yield mechanism in the basin into two periods of 1956-1973 and 1974-2008, and the precipitation series of the basin was divided into wet, normal and dry state by means of anomaly method. On the basis of the analysis mentioned above, the multivariate dynamic regression model was established between the runoff of the current year, the precipitation of the current year and the previous year. And the multivariate dynamic regression model was applied to the quantitative assessment for the impact of the precipitation variation and runoff-yield change on Fenhe River runoff. The result showed that, under the runoff-yield condition of Fenhe basin during 1956-1973, precipitation changes caused the annual runoff volume of Hejin hydrologic station reduced by an average of about 22.71%, while under the runoff-yield condition during 1974-2008, precipitation changes in the normal and dry state years caused the annual runoff volume of Hejin station decreasing by an average of about 18.95%; under the condition of precipitation in the normal and dry state years from 1956 to 1973, the runoff-yield change of Fenhe basin led to a decrease of runoff volume about 47.11%, while under the condition of precipitation during 1974-2008, the runoff-yield change of Fenhe basin led to a decrease of runoff volume about 55.20%.

Key words: precipitation, runoff, runoff yield condition, multivariate dynamic regression

CLC Number: 

  • P333.6

[1] 赵云,胡彩虹,胡珊.汾河和沁河入黄径流锐减事实分析[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(3):31-34. Zhao Yun, Hu Caihong, Hu Shan. Facts Analysis of Significant Reduction in Runoff of Fenhe and Qinhe Basin[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2012,30(3):31-34.

[2] 牛军宜.降水过程和产流机制变化对汾河径流锐减影响的统计分析[R]. 郑州:郑州大学水利工程博士后流动站,2014. Niu Junyi. Statistical Analysis for the Influence of Preciptation and Basin Features Change to the Fenhe Runoff Sharply Decrease[R]. Zhengzhou:Hydraulic Engineering Post-Doctoral Research Center of Zhengzhou University, 2014.

[3] 王永磊,李振,景雪,等. 均匀降雨条件下不同下垫面产汇流特性试验研究[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2012(2):38-41. Wang Yonglei, Li Zhen, Jing Xue, et al. Research on Runoff-Producing and Flow Concentration Characteristics of Different Underlying Surfaces Under Uniform Rainfall Conditions[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2012(2):38-41.

[4] 董雯. 人类活动和气候变化对水文水资源的影响研究:以新疆精河流域为例[D]. 乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2010. Dong Wen. Study on the Effect of Human Activities and Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources:A Case Study in Jinghe Basin, Xinjiang[D]. Urumqi:Xinjiang University, 2010.

[5] 夏军,乔云峰,宋宪方,等. 岔巴沟流域不同下垫面对降雨径流关系影响规律分析[J]. 资源科学,2007,29(1):70-76. Xia Jun, Qiao Yunfeng, Song Xianfang, et al. Analysis About Effect Rules of Underlying Surface Change to the Relationship Between Rainfall and Runoff in the Chabagou Catchment[J]. Resource Science, 2007, 29(1):70-76.

[6] 张爱静,王本德,曹明亮. 气候变化与人类活动对径流影响贡献的研究概况[J]. 东北水利水电,2012(1):6-9. Zhang Aijing, Wang Bende, Cao Mingliang. Influence Research of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Contribution[J]. Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast, 2012(1):6-9.

[7] 王国庆,张建云,刘九夫,等. 气候变化和人类活动对河川径流影响的定量分析[J]. 中国水利,2008(2):55-59. Wang Guoqing, Zhang Jianyun, Liu Jiufu, et al. Quantitative Assessment for Climate Change and Human Activities Impact on River Runoff[J]. China Water Resources, 2008(2):55-59.

[8] 陈晓宏,涂新军,谢平,等. 水文要素变异的人类活动影响研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展,2010,25(8):888-899. Chen Xiaohong, Tu Xinjun, Xie Ping, et al. Progresses in the Research of Human Induced Variability of Hydrological Elements[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2010, 25(8):888-899.

[9] 翟禄新. 近50a来中国西北气候变化及其水文响应分析[D]. 兰州:兰州大学,2008. Zhai Luxin. Climatic Variability and Impact on Hydrology in Recent 50 Years in Northwest China[J]. Lanzhou:Lanzhou University, 2008.

[10] Ma Huan, Yang Dawen, Keat Soon, et al. Impact of Climate Variability and Human Activity on Streamflow Decrease in the Miyun Reservoir Catchment[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 38(9):317-324.

[11] Bewket W, Sterk G. Dynamics in Land Cover and Its Effect on Stream Flow in the Chemoga Watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2010, 19(2):445-458.

[12] 朱恒峰,赵文武,康慕谊,等. 水土保持地区人类活动对汛期径流影响的估算[J]. 水科学进展,2008,19(3):400-406. Zhu Hengfeng, Zhao Wenwu, Kang Muyi, et al. Effect of Human Activities on Flood Season Runoff in Water and Soil Conservation Region[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2008, 19(3):400-406.

[13] 王振海,李传哲,于福亮,等. 气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的贡献分解[J]. 济南大学学报,2014,28(4):302-306. Wang Zhenhai, Li Chuanzhe, Yu Fuliang, et al. Quantitative Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change and Human Activities on Streamflow[J]. Journal of University of Jinan, 2014, 28(4):302-306.

[14] 于磊,杨井泉,徐丽梅,等. 气候变化背景下海河流域干旱特征及趋势[J]. 吉林大学学报学报(地球科学版),2014,44(5):1615-1624. Yu Lei, Yang Jingquan, Xu Limei, et al. Trend and Drying Characteristics of Haihe River Basin Under the Background of Climate Change[J]. Journal of Jilin University (Earth Science Edition), 2014, 44(5):1615-1624.

[15] 姚允龙,吕宪国,王蕾,等. 气候变化对挠力河径流量影响的定量分析[J]. 水科学进展,2010,21(6):765-770. Yao Yunlong, Lü Xianguo, Wang Lei, et al. A Quantitative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Runoff in Naoli River[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 21(6):765-770.

[16] 郭军庭,张志强,王盛萍,等. 应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响[J]. 生态学报, 2014,34(6):1935-1943. Guo Junting, Zhang Zhiqiang, Wang Shengping, et al. Appling SWAT Model to Explore the Impact of Changes in Land Use and Climate on the Streamflow in a Watershed of Northern China[J]. Acta Eclologica Sinica, 2014, 34(6):1935-1943.

[17] 李建柱,冯平. 降雨因素对大清河流域洪水径流变化影响分析[J]. 水利学报,2010,41(5):595-600,607. Li Jianzhu, Feng Ping. Effects of Precipitation on Flood Vriations in the Daqinghe River Bsin[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2010, 41(5):595-600,607.

[18] 穆兴民,张秀勤,高鹏,等. 双累积曲线方法理论及在水文气象领域应用中应注意的问题[J]. 水文,2010,30(4):47-51. Mu Xingmin, Zhang Xiuqin, Gao Peng, et al. Theory of Double Mass Curves and Its Applications in Hydrology and Meteorology[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2010, 30(4):47-51.

[19] Zhao Guangju, Tian Peng, Mu Xingmin, et al. Quan-tifying the Impact of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Streamflow in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Basin, China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 519:387-398.

[20] SL250-2000水文情报预报规范[S]. 北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000. SL250-2000 Standard for Hydrological Information and Hydrological Forecasting[S]. Beijing:China Water and Power Press, 2000.

[21] 李鸿雁,田琪,王小军,等. 嫩江流域径流时空演化规律分析[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2014, 44(4):1282-1289. Li Hongyan, Tian Qi, Wang XiaoJun, et al. Analysis on the Law of Spatio-Temporal Changes of Runoff in Nenjiang River Basin[J]. Journal of Jilin University (Earth Science Edition), 2014, 44(4):1282-1289.
[1] Wang Lihua, Zhou Yunxuan. Driving Factors Analysis on Evolution of Water and Sediment at Datong Station [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2018, 48(1): 226-233.
[2] Zhang Shiyue, Shu Longcang, Min Xing, Hu Huijie, Zou Zhike. Calculation of Precipitation Infiltration Recharge Based on Land-Use Type [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2017, 47(3): 860-867.
[3] Xu Zemin, Mei Xuefeng, Wang Lirong, Zhang Youwei, Zeng Qiang, Guo Lili. Precipitation Temporal and Variability of Landslide Early Warning Research: A Case Study on Touzhai Gully in Yunnan Province [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2017, 47(1): 154-162.
[4] Lu Wenxi, An Yongkai, Song Wenbo, Yu Ting. Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Seasonal Meteorological Drought in West Jilin Province [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2016, 46(2): 543-551.
[5] Wei Runchu, Xiao Changlai, Fang Zhang. Trends Mutation Nodes of Groundwater Dynamic in Jiansanjiang Area of Heilongjiang Province [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2016, 46(1): 202-210.
[6] Huang Qibo, Qin Xiaoqun, Liu Pengyu, Kang Zhiqiang, Tang Pingping. Applicability of Karst Carbon Sinks Calculation Methods in Semi-Arid Climate Environment [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2015, 45(1): 240-246.
[7] Zhang Qian，Liang Xiujuan，Du Chuan. Predication of Precipitation Based on Unbiased Gray Markov Chain in Jilin Province [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2014, 44(6): 1973-1979.
[8] Guo Xiaojun, Li Yong, Cui Peng. Experiment on Random Law of Slope Soil Movement in the Source Area of Debris Flow [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2014, 44(4): 1260-1268.
[9] Li Hongyan, Tian Qi, Wang Xiaojun, Wang Hongrui, Yu Wenquan. Analysis on the Laws of Spatio-Temporal Changes of Runoff in Nenjiang River Basin [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2014, 44(4): 1282-1289.
[10] Wei Runchu, Xiao Changlai, Zhang Yuqing, Liang Xiujuan. Identification and Spatial Clustering for Chaos of Precipitation of China [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2014, 44(2): 626-635.
[11] Chen Sheming, Lu Wenxi, Luo Jiannan, Kang Zhu. Multifractal Characteristic of Meteorological Drought in Western of Jilin Province [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2013, 43(1): 245-250.
[12] ZHANG Feng-jun, WANG Huai-yuan, WANG Guang-hua, YANG Xiao-ying, WANG Tian-Ye, LIU Na. Experiment on Mechanism of CO2 Fluid Interacting with |Sandstone Layer [J]. J4, 2012, 42(3): 821-826.
[13] JIANG Li-guo, LIANG Bing. A Coupled Model of Hydro-Transport-Thermal in Variable Saturated Porous Media Considering Geochemical Process [J]. J4, 2011, 41(5): 1529-1534.
[14] JIANG Guang-hui, YU Shi, CHANG Yong. Identifification of Runoff in Karst Drainage System Using Hydrochemical Method [J]. J4, 2011, 41(5): 1535-1541.
[15] ZHAO Heng, SONG Er-xiang. Rainfall Thresholds for Regional Landslides [J]. J4, 2011, 41(5): 1481-1487.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
Copyright © Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), All Rights Reserved.
Tel: +86-431-88502374；13756165364　E-mail: xuebao1956@jlu.edu.cn
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd