吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2010, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (03): 879-0883.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

嫩江流域径流的大气环流影响及其敏感性分析

李鸿雁,王玉新,段长春   

  1. 吉林大学 环境与资源学院| |长春 130026
  • 收稿日期:2009-03-21 修回日期:2009-06-21 出版日期:2010-05-01 发布日期:2010-05-01
  • 作者简介:李鸿雁(1968)|女|副教授.研究方向:水文预报.Email:lihongyan@jlu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(50879028)

Impact of atmospheric circulation and its sensitivity analysis of Nenjiang river valley runoff

LI Hong-yan|WANG Yu-xin|DUAN Chang-chun   

  1. College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University,Changchun 130026,China
  • Received:2009-03-21 Revised:2009-06-21 Online:2010-05-01 Published:2010-05-01

摘要:

以敏感性分析为理论基础,定义了径流过程(因变量)依大气环流因子(自变量)的敏感度,并采用BP算法来识别大气环流因子对径流过程的耦合作用,从而完成因变量与自变量之间映射关系的识别。结合嫩江流域20世纪50年代以来的历史资料,计算出径流依大气环流因子的敏感度,最终评价出影响嫩江流域径流过程的关键性大气环流因子为极涡面积和强度指数、中纬度环流指数和青藏高原环流指数等3大类,该评价结果符合嫩江流域的水文气象规律。

关键词: 水文学, 径流, 大气环流, 敏感性分析, 中长期径流预报

Abstract:

The sensitivity index of the river valley runoff process as dependent variable versus the atmospheric circulation factors as independent variable was defined based on the theory of sensitivity analysis. The coupling mechanism of the atmospheric circulation factors to the runoff process was identified by the BP algorithm to get the mapping relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Based on the historical data of the Nenjiang river valley since the 1950s, the sensitivity index of the valley runoff to the atmospheric circulation index was calculated. It was found that the key factors of atmospheric curculation affecting the Nenjiang river valley runoff process are the area and intensity of circumpolar cyclone, circumfluence at middle latitudes, and Tibetan plateau circumfluence.

Key words: hydrology, runoff, atmospheric circulation, sensitivity analysis, mid-andlong, term runoff forecasting

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