吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2013, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (03): 654-658.doi: 10.7964/jdxbgxb201303016

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Forecast model of emergency traffic evacuation time under major disaster

YU De-xin1,2, TONG Qian2, YANG Zhao-sheng1,2, GAO Peng3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Automobile Simulation and Control, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China;
    2. College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130022,China;
    3. Traffic Planning and Design Institute of Qingdao, Qingdao 266071,China
  • Received:2012-05-22 Online:2013-05-01 Published:2013-05-01

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Abstract: Currently it is hard to get real data for emergency evacuation and rescue work under major disaster. To overcome this situation, a calculation model of the link travel time and route travel time was proposed based on the BPR (Bureau of Public Roads) function. Then a prediction model of emergency evacuation time under major disaster was built. Under the background of road network in De Zhou city of China, the software TransModeler is adopted to build interregional road network and simulate major disaster. The data of emergency evacuation time obtained with TransModeler is used to check the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model has higher precision and fidelity, which can offer data support to emergency evacuation and rescue work when major disaster occurs.

Key words: engineering of communications and transportation system, major disaster, emergency evacuation, evacuation time, forecast model

CLC Number: 

  • U491
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