吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2013, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (03): 654-658.doi: 10.7964/jdxbgxb201303016

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Forecast model of emergency traffic evacuation time under major disaster

YU De-xin1,2, TONG Qian2, YANG Zhao-sheng1,2, GAO Peng3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Automobile Simulation and Control, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China;
    2. College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130022,China;
    3. Traffic Planning and Design Institute of Qingdao, Qingdao 266071,China
  • Received:2012-05-22 Online:2013-05-01 Published:2013-05-01

RICH HTML

0   

PDF (PC)

340

Abstract: Currently it is hard to get real data for emergency evacuation and rescue work under major disaster. To overcome this situation, a calculation model of the link travel time and route travel time was proposed based on the BPR (Bureau of Public Roads) function. Then a prediction model of emergency evacuation time under major disaster was built. Under the background of road network in De Zhou city of China, the software TransModeler is adopted to build interregional road network and simulate major disaster. The data of emergency evacuation time obtained with TransModeler is used to check the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model has higher precision and fidelity, which can offer data support to emergency evacuation and rescue work when major disaster occurs.

Key words: engineering of communications and transportation system, major disaster, emergency evacuation, evacuation time, forecast model

CLC Number: 

  • U491
[1] Zilla S S, Eliahu S. Simulating the evacuation of a small city: the effects of traffic factors[J]. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 1993, 27(2):97-108.

[2] Han L D, Yuan F. Evacuation modeling and operations using dynamic traffic assignment and most assignment and most desirable destination approaches//Proceedings of the 84th Transportation Research Board,2389-2401.

[3] Tweedie S W, Rowland J R, Walsh S J, et al. A methodology for estimating emergency evacuation times[J]. The Social Science Journal,1986, 23(2):189-204.

[4] 袁媛, 汪定伟, 蒋忠中, 等. 考虑路线复杂度的应急疏散双目标路径选择模型[J]. 运筹与管理, 2008,17(5):73-79. Yuan Yuan, Wang Ding-wei, Jiang Zhong-zhong, et al. Multi-objective path selection model for emergency evacuation taking into account the path complexity[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2008,17(5):73-79.

[5] 卢兆明, 林鹏, 黄河潮. 基于GIS的都市应急疏散系统[J]. 中国公共安全:学术版, 2005(2):35-40. Lu Zhao-ming, Lin Peng, Huang He-chao. Urban emergency evacuation system based on GIS[J]. China Public Security, Academy Edition, 2005(2):35-40.

[6] Lo H K, Tung Y K. Network with degmdable links: capacity analysis and design[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,2003,37(4):345-363.
[1] CHEN Yong-heng,LIU Fang-hong,CAO Ning-bo. Analysis of conflict factors between pedestrians and channelized right turn vehicles at signalized intersections [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2018, 48(6): 1669-1676.
[2] LIU Xiang-yu, YANG Qing-fang, KUI Hai-lin. Traffic guidance cell division based on random walk algorithm [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2018, 48(5): 1380-1386.
[3] LIU Zhao-hui, WANG Chao, LYU Wen-hong, GUAN Xin. Identification of data characteristics of vehicle running status parameters by nonlinear dynamic analysis [J]. Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), 2018, 48(5): 1405-1410.
[4] LUAN Xin, DENG Wei, CHENG Lin, CHEN Xin-yuan. Mixed Logit model for understanding travel mode choice behavior of megalopolitan residents [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(4): 1029-1036.
[5] CHEN Yong-heng, LIU Xin-shan, XIONG Shuai, WANG Kun-wei, SHEN Yao, YANG Shao-hui. Variable speed limit control under snow and ice conditions for urban expressway in junction bottleneck area [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(3): 677-687.
[6] WANG Zhan-zhong, LU Yue, LIU Xiao-feng, ZHAO Li-ying. Improved harmony search algorithm on truck scheduling for cross docking system [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(3): 688-693.
[7] CHEN Song, LI Xian-sheng, REN Yuan-yuan. Adaptive signal control method for intersection with hook-turn buses [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(2): 423-429.
[8] SU Shu-jie, HE Lu. Transient dynamic congestion evacuation model of pedestrian at walk traffic planning crossroads [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(2): 440-447.
[9] WANG Zhan-zhong, ZHAO Li-ying, JIAO Yu-Ling, CAO Ning-bo. Social force model of pedestrian-bike mixed flow at signalized crosswalk [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(1): 89-97.
[10] HOU Xian-yao, CHEN Xue-wu. Use of public transit information market segmentation based onattitudinal factors [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2018, 48(1): 98-104.
[11] GAO Kun, TU Hui-zhao, SHI Heng, LI Zhen-fei. Effect of low visibility in haze weather condition on longitudinal driving behavior in different car-following stages [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(6): 1716-1727.
[12] WEI Li-ying, CUI Yu-feng, WEI Jia-rong. Cellular automata model based on local maximum entropy lane-changing rules for electric bicycle flow [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(5): 1436-1445.
[13] YAO Rong-han, ZHANG Xiao-tong, LIAN Lian. Optimization model for controlling reversible approach lanes at signalized intersections [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(4): 1048-1054.
[14] FANG Rui-wei, ZHANG Xie-dong, JIANG Pan. Planning of urban rapid transportation based on SWOT-AHP analysis [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(4): 1055-1060.
[15] LI Ming-da, KUI Hai-lin, MEN Yu-zhuo, BAO Cui-zhu. Aerodynamic drag of heavy duty vehicle with complex underbody structure [J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(3): 731-736.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] LIU Song-shan, WANG Qing-nian, WANG Wei-hua, LIN Xin. Influence of inertial mass on damping and amplitude-frequency characteristic of regenerative suspension[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 557 -563 .
[2] CHU Liang, WANG Yan-bo, QI Fu-wei, ZHANG Yong-sheng. Control method of inlet valves for brake pressure fine regulation[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 564 -570 .
[3] LI Jing, WANG Zi-han, YU Chun-xian, HAN Zuo-yue, SUN Bo-hua. Design of control system to follow vehicle state with HIL test beach[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 577 -583 .
[4] HU Xing-jun, LI Teng-fei, WANG Jing-yu, YANG Bo, GUO Peng, LIAO Lei. Numerical simulation of the influence of rear-end panels on the wake flow field of a heavy-duty truck[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 595 -601 .
[5] WANG Tong-jian, CHEN Jin-shi, ZHAO Feng, ZHAO Qing-bo, LIU Xin-hui, YUAN Hua-shan. Mechanical-hydraulic co-simulation and experiment of full hydraulic steering systems[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 607 -612 .
[6] ZHANG Chun-qin, JIANG Gui-yan, WU Zheng-yan. Factors influencing motor vehicle travel departure time choice behavior[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 626 -632 .
[7] MA Wan-jing, XIE Han-zhou. Integrated control of main-signal and pre-signal on approach of intersection with double stop line[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 633 -639 .
[8] XIAO Yun, LEI Jun-qing, ZHANG Kun, LI Zhong-san. Fatigue stiffness degradation of prestressed concrete beam under multilevel amplitude cycle loading[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 665 -670 .
[9] XIAO Rui, DENG Zong-cai, LAN Ming-zhang, SHEN Chen-liang. Experiment research on proportions of reactive powder concrete without silica fume[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 671 -676 .
[10] XIAN Shu, ZHENG Jin, LU Xing, ZHANG Shi-peng. Identification approach of P2P flow based on the content redistribution model[J]. 吉林大学学报(工学版), 2013, 43(03): 727 -733 .
Copyright © Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition), All Rights Reserved.
Tel: +86-431-85095297　Fax: +86-431-85094074　E-mail: xbgxb@jlu.edu.cn
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd