Abstract:

Abstract:Objective To establish an individual health risk appraisal model of breast cancer among women so as to predict the risk of breast cancer of a specific individual in the future.Methods Systemic review and reports of major scientific projects with big sample size which were related with risk factors of breast cancer among women in China were searched to select positive index.Age of menarche,age of first delivery,times of abortion,feeding style,age of menopause,smoking,benign breast diseases,family history of cancer,intake of contraceptive and educational level were choose to built a mathematical model.The mathematical model was used to build a risk score table and individual health risk appraisal model.Results The risk scores were obtained in individuals with different characteristics,with the results of 1.10 for age of the first menstrual period less than 17 years old,1.31 for age at first delivery more than 25 years old,2.56 for two or more  times of abortions,0.90 for breast feeding,1.01 for age of menopause younger than 44 years old,1.49 for smoking,2.41 for having benign breast diseases,1.93 for having family history of cancer,1.39 for having intake of contraceptive and 2.04 for high educational level.Conclusion The newly established individual health risk appraisal model of breast cancer can fit for woman with different characteristics in age of menarche,age of first delivery,times of abortion,feeding style,age of menopause,smoking,benign breast diseases,family history of cancer,intake of contraceptive and educational level in China.

Key words: breast neoplasms；proportional hazards models;risk assessment