吉林大学学报(工学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 1076-1081.doi: 10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201504008

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Short-term traffic parameters prediction method based on vector error correction model

BING Qi-chun1, YANG Zhao-sheng1, 2, 3, ZHOU Xi-yang1, MA Ming-hui1   

  1. 1.College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China;
    2.State Key Laboratory of Automobile Simulation and Control, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China;
    3.Jilin Province Key Laboratory of Road Traffic, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China
  • Received:2014-07-13 Online:2015-07-01 Published:2015-07-01

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Abstract: In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of short-term traffic parameters, according to the inherent correlation between traffic parameters, on the basis of stationarity test and cointegration test for traffic parameters time series, a multivariate time series model for short-term traffic parameters forecasting is proposed, which is called vector error correction model. The stationarity of the vector error correction model was tested. Validation and comparative analysis were carried out using inductive loop data measured from the north-south viaduct in Shanghai, China. The experiment results indicate that the proposed vector error correction model has good prediction performance and can further reduce the prediction errors of short-term traffic parameters.

Key words: engineering of communication and transportation system, vector error correction model, traffic parameters, short-term prediction

CLC Number: 

  • U491.1
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